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115 sats \ 4 replies \ @grayruby 23 Jan \ on: Why prediction markets aren’t popular oracle
I thought they were popular. Polymarket, Kalshi and PredictIt got a ton of buzz and media around the election.
Maybe they are just for big events.
The idea that only being for gamblers means there is no product market fit seems odd. Gambling industry is massive and global.
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54 sats \ 3 replies \ @k00b OP 23 Jan
All the activity is concentrated near the resolution:
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73 sats \ 2 replies \ @grayruby 23 Jan
Yes that makes sense. They just need to have something every month for people to be hyped about betting on.
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54 sats \ 1 reply \ @freetx 24 Jan
Sports betting sites capitalized on this by introducing "live betting" (aka in-game betting).
So not only can you bet on winner/loser - over/under....but you can bet play by play. "Team A will fumble the ball X times", "Team B will be next team to score", etc...
This has produced lots of interesting situations for bettors who may pick Team A to win, but upon seeing a bad first quarter, will then hedge against them by betting that Team B will have higher half-time score. Or sometimes bettors may bet for Team A to win, but also hoping that they fumble the ball X number of times so that their multi-layered bets can all hit....
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6 sats \ 0 replies \ @grayruby 24 Jan
Good points.
You can buy and sell shares during an event on a prediction market which makes it more like day trading than sports betting. Sports betting offers a much wider variety of outcomes to bet on though.
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