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15 sats \ 4 replies \ @Undisciplined 23 Jan \ on: Which industries are most vulnerable to Trump's immigration crackdown? econ
It's going to depend heavily on how they go about enforcing it and, more importantly, how the immigrants expect it to be enforced.
If it's believed that the priority will strictly be on deporting illegal immigrants who are caught committing non-immigration related crimes, then the effect might be fairly small.
Thanks for your insights. I also believe that things will become clearer once illegal immigrants are deported. But yeah, you're right it all comes down to how they enforce it and what the immigrants think will happen.
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Obviously, the "we are going to physically deport 15 million people" is just political theater. It could never happen, neither physically - nor politically (imagine news broadcast showing ICE officers rounding up crying families).
However, whats not really talked about, is it is possible to change the laws such that self-deportation becomes the only reasonable option.
Employment requires Proof of Citizenship, Bank account requires PoC, housing / apartment lease requires PoC, drivers license requires PoC, etc etc....
Pretty soon the only reasonable approach would be to self-deport.
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Sort of. Those measures could also push more people to just operate in the black/grey markets. Increasing compliance costs -> less compliance.
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black/grey markets.
I'm sure there would be lots and lots of grey markets operating at the fringes. But the bigger the players get (large employers, large banks, large apartment owners) would all wind up complying.
Suppose that winds up affecting 50% of the illegals, that may still be enough of a political win for them to pursue this path.
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