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I'd bet on a 2025 public fallout between Musk and Trump. What would be a good way to resolve a prediction market based on this? The obvious would be a firing of Musk by Trump from the Doge department, but can you think of other ways?
Maybe something like, "Will Trump make a social media post shittalking Elon in 2025?"
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Just an idea ;)
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The new portfolio overview looks great by the way. Just noticed :)
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Thanks 🙏
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Let me know what you think:

Market: Trump criticizes Musk within a year?

Resolution Criteria
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump publicly disparages Elon Musk for any reason between January 21, 2025, and January 21, 2026. Public disparagement includes, but is not limited to:
  • Belittling nicknames or personal insults.
  • Statements expressing disapproval, dislike, or criticism (e.g., "I never liked him anyway").
  • Comments that could reasonably be interpreted as derogatory or dismissive.
Subjectivity
While interpretation may vary, the resolution will prioritize clear and unambiguous statements. Neutral comments or mild disagreements will not qualify as disparagement.
Resolution Sources
Verified statements from credible media outlets, official speeches, interviews, or social media posts by Trump.
If no such statements are made by January 21, 2026, this market will resolve to "No".
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This looks pretty good to me :)
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Will create this market now. How large do you want to bet on this one, I will add initial liquidity accordingly.