very strange that the two bitcoin prediction markets quote this event (pardoning) very differently.

I guess that's just a liquidity/market friction thing: https://beta.predyx.com/market/trump-pardons-ross-ulbricht-by-jan-21

https://www.bitcoinprediction.market/predictions/31/will-donald-trump-commute-ross-ulbricht's-sentence-and-free-him-on-day-one-in-office @mega_dreamer