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The "dollar smile" is this idea that the dollar strengthens when America does well and when everything is shit, including when that shit stems from the U.S. itself. We're currently in Schrödinger's dollar smile, where America is thriving and also sucking, and so various dollar-indices are hitting records.
Risks are high, particularly outside the US, and that prompts flows into the dollar; but those risks seem to be skewed to the upside, so good news for the US is also pushing up the currency. It’s never possible to prove causation, but the dollar’s rally overlaps almost perfectly with [Trump's] improving political fortunes.
Also, PREPARE FOR A WORLD DISCOUNT, Americans, and not just Europe on the cheap (bye-bye, euro!):
Not at all unrelated, we get this: "Traders working today, in bonds and forex, have no experience of a dollar this strong, or of rates that are steadily rising:"
Nobody knows what rising yields mean or how they work. Oops.
The world of money, as always, is in for a treat. Buckle up.

I've been thinking more about 4th turning stuff lately. Is this the "weak men make bad times" part of the show?
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undoubtedly
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And yet Chinas challenge to US hegemony is ongoing but remains under the radar of most superficial US exceptionalism biased analysis such as this. Bitcoin is inflating due to the awareness that USD hegemony is eroding and facing imminent collapse- because US power is now largely reliant upon USD siegniorage and debt leverage...but meanwhile China has won the trade war and is now attacking militarily via proxies in a medium term strategy to usurp US hegemony. Capture and control of international protocols and institutions is a significant part the next logical phase of Chinas incremental advance...in combination with already running proxy wars across the Middle East and Europe. Trumps tariffs, threats to BRICS and other bluster may stave off the collapse of USD hegemony but its far from decided who wins in the medium term. If the Saudis joined the Chinese led Iran Russia alliance against the US it could be all but over very swiftly. The clock is ticking.
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