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23 sats \ 1 reply \ @charonnakamoto 11h \ on: What Is The Bull Case for Land? econ
Real estate has become an investment vehicle in the clown fiat world. This is because all scarce assets increase in fiat value because of money printing. Once Bitcoin demonetizes land, land will return to its utility value without any monetary premiums. However, until then, real estate will probably do better than the money supply printing rate but will struggle to keep up with Bitcoin's returns.
The mental model to apply would be: Whatever the investment I am going to make, will it exceed the rate of returns of Bitcoin? For the past 4 years, Bitcoin has had around 55% rate of return CAGR. So you need to ask, "Will land or any other investment vehicle come close to that 55% return?" Yes, granted(unless supercycle, haha), there might be a slight dip in returns as the asset class matures, but over a 4-year CAGR, at least I don't foresee that coming down significantly from that 50% mark for the next 5 years.
PS: Michael Saylor forsees has a 29% CAGR estimate for BTC for the next 21 years in his base case(conservative case, IMO).
Additionally, look at it in terms of risk-adjusted returns. As you rightly pointed out, real estate has a lot of counterparty risk, where governments can seize it, tax it, etc. This is not to say that Bitcoin doesn't have any risks. If you want to consider the risk of Black Rock forking the coin and dumping the main chain, you can also consider that into the picture. I am trying to be objective here;
However, Bitcoin is the most decentralized, most secure, and absolutely scarce digital asset without an issuer, so I don't foresee major counterparty risk like I do with real estate.
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