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This is a great question, I reserve the right to come back and resurrect this thread after an epiphany.
Please do, would be interested in evolution of the idea.
I guess I just follow the evidence, but have to be content with the fact that evidence is not proof, because ultimately there's no objective truth at this scale.
Yeah, and I suppose it's immaterial anyway -- if the theory is true, it would suggest a certain underlying buffer against 'catastrophe', but that doesn't mean that the catastrophe must actually be averted in practice, since catastrophe can unfold in many ways, even when people are trying to prevent it. (Nor does it mean that if the theory wasn't true, that catastrophe couldn't also be averted. You can just get lucky.)
It does make an evocative explanation, in any event. Will be a good lens to have access to in the days ahead.