I've recently been playing a lot with the Predyx prediction market by @mega_dreamer. I put some money in a market that should resolve with the presidential inauguration on Bitcoin Prediction Market.

Inevitably, as I tried to understand the dynamics of these markets more, I ended up watching the linked video (again). It's really well made. You may sometime need to pause it to digest every part, but it's a really good primer IMO about the strengths (and weaknesses) of prediction markets.

More than just being another way for degen gamblers to lose money (we all heard stories from polymarket), I realized it's really about using one's edge over others. I noticed this specifically with markets related to the current turmoil in Korea. Living here, and having friends participating in protests, I feel like I can use this advantage and help the markets behave the way they should.

At this point, the 2 linked platforms are too small to have sufficient liquidity, so one is still able to move the odds quite a lot with only small money. Good to learn and have fun. Don't want to gamble away my sats.

Previously posted in 2023: #344971. Interesting discussions in comments there.