Last year ended with quite the theatrics in the House of Representatives, which essentially ended in a bandaid for a few things and a punt on the rest. Even during the vote to pass the Continuing Resolution for government funding, a significantly high number of Republicans bucked the party and voted against the legislation. Some have realized this is an issue for Speaker Johnson to reseek the Speakership and wonder if he has the 218 votes needed.
Tomorrow, Friday, January 3rd is the first day of the 119th Congress. Tomorrow morning both existing and new Members will take their oath of office and the Speaker vote will follow that up. Unlike in 2022 or the 218th Congress the Government and especially the Republican Party cannot afford a multiday or multivote circus because of well... The Constitution.
It is dictated in The Constitution that the Congress is formed on January 3rd and that the Electoral College votes are counted and certified on January 6th. In order to count and certify the Electoral College votes the House has to have a Speaker. If the House fails to elect one then well... Honestly, no one knows what happens because it has never been tested.
On January 20th we would get a new President that is 110% known... BUTTTTTT it would not be President-Elect Donald Trump. Instead due to the way that the order of succession has been altered and ratified many many times, the President would become Senator Chuck Grassley as he is the President pro tempore of the Senate.
The President pro tempore of the Senate is the second-highest-ranking Member of the Senate behind the Vice President. The order of succession goes Vice President, Speaker of the House, and then the President pro tempore of the Senate, and since due to a Speaker fight we wouldn't have the first three we would fall down too well Senator Chuck Grassley.
Now Senator Grassley is honestly a firecracker and up until just a couple of years ago was going on freaking runs in the morning around the Capitol Complex... he was in his late 80s doing this before he had to "retire" from his morning runs and is currently 91. Now I will say last I heard Sen. Grassley speak (just last month) you could have knocked me over with him being 91 due to the energy and sharp wit he still maintains. Hell, he is more there they Members who are just 60 or 70 and keep up at a pace I am not even sure I can.
Given the fallout that would transpire the idea of no Speaker being elected seems pretty wild. The damage done to the Republican Party would be honest to God the worst thing I can imagine. It would send everything falling straight to the shitter and easily cause so much damage that the Republican Trifecta wouldn't exist except for on paper as the House Republicans would descend into chaos.
There will be one "No" vote tomorrow because Rep. Thomas Massie is himself and even for the good of the country to operate as normal he would throw a wrench in it. The two other biggest possible "nos" would be Rep. Chip Roy of Texas and Rep. Victoria Spartz of Indiana.