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How did you think the article was, in the general sense of accurately portraying the situation in Argentina?
Were the basic facts fairly accurate, even if the interpretation was lacking?
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I didn't even try because I could feel from the distance what I was going to face. It was far more productive to address the comments on this post directly.
At you request, I took a look. Exactly what I expected.
  1. Right from the title: "fuelling competitiveness concerns". There are no such concerns whatsoever, in the least, as explained in my previous comment. The economy has been recovering since "monetary competitiveness was lost", how so??... Whenever you read the "monetary competitiveness" argument, safely assume you are wasting your tame. It's not that "they get it wrong", it's a deliberate state propaganda method to justify plunder.
  2. Right from the first paragraph: "even as economists question the sustainability of high prices in Argentina". High prices being unsustainable is the reason inflation is coming to an end. With deflation in some sectors. Note how they manipulate something so basic.
  3. Third paragraph: "The gains for the government-set exchange rate have been replicated on several legal and illegal parallel markets". It's the exact opposite. The government-set exchange rate, coupled with the monetary policy I explained in my previous comment, tries to close the gap with the black market value. You can see the historic evolution of that process here.
  4. Bis. The "access to the official rate is restricted" isolated expression is unreliable and must be further explained: yes, people can only buy a certain amount of dollars from the banks per month, but not at the official rate. That was possible more than 4 years ago, but the previous govt imposed a tax on buying dollars so that the end result is even more expensive than buying it from the black market (75% tax at its peak, lowered by Milei to 60% until very recently, and on the path of getting lower). So, it's still cheaper to get dollars from the black market than from the bank. The true devaluing rate of the peso was hidden by the previous government by setting an "official rate" way below the true rate and compensating the difference via taxation. So while on paper the official rate is lower, in practice it's even more expensive. The reason people still buys it instead of using the black market is because bank delivered dollars are traceable and thus legal to own, which is required for certain transactions. Plus most people don't know nor trust the black market, so they try to buy/sell via friends and relatives. That causes the bank to still be the first source of dollars for most.
  5. "The trend is popular with Argentines, who have seen average salaries almost double in dollar terms". This is not due to the appreciation of the Peso. At it's peak the Peso touched 1500 ARS/USD and now it's at 1200ARS/USD, a ratio that can not explain by itself current salaries appreciation rate. That statement ignores that due to inflation being almost a tradition, even the shittiest employee contracts consider some sort of inflation compensation over time, usually by semester. In an inflationary context, said compensation can never catch-up, leading to slower but consistent salary reduction in real terms. But, since it remained in place in what's now a context of inflation reduction, compensation rates were able for the first time to catch up, hence the salary recovery effect.
  6. "Argentina’s central bank has struggled to rebuild its virtually empty hard currency reserves as it spends dollars to keep the peso strong." it's true that it has been difficult to keep up reserves, but it's not due to reserves being spent to keep the peso strong, as I explained. The struggle comes from massive debt obligations left by all the previous socialist regimes.
  7. "a potential tariff spree by incoming US president Donald Trump": Trump as been clear that tariffs will be applied only to non cooperative countries. And indeed, a free-trade agreement is on the works with Argentina.
  8. "but the peso’s appreciation is the greatest risk going forward": that's violently contrary to reality, both current and historical. This must be coupled with "demand for cheap dollars could surge, increasing the risk of devaluation" to draw the actual picture: dollar scarcity is the risk, whatever the ARS/USD ratio is. A more devalued peso is what increases devaluation risks, not the opposite, for it will take even more pesos to buy scarce dollars. A strong peso decreases the devaluation risk, for it's closer to match usd scarcity, or to surpass it (as it happened). However, the volatility due to usd scarcity is still bad towards any direction, so that's why the challenge is on usd scarcity, for the govt must ensure that enough is available to dollarize once and for all and end the madness for good.
This is not even a third of the article and I still have to stop at literally every word. I'm tired already, but if I continue this comment will be too long. I think I have made my point. So, once again, for the 100th time, please, stop wasting your time with leftist propaganda.
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Interesting. There is a lot of subtext here that I totally missed, not being from Argentina myself.
Am I right to say that your main area of disagreement with the article is that you think keeping the peso strong is not as risky as the article suggests and is actually an important policy for bringing down inflation?
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All missed points are critical (so critical the situation is and hence the merit of the nuclear bomb deactivated by Milei's team), so my main area of disagreement is the entire area.
Talking specifically about the strengthening of the peso, it's not only not risky at all, but it's vital for the economic recovery and long-term growth. It's not even new, for having a strong currency has been historically a key element of economic recovery, such as in the case of the german miracle, and the japanese miracle. The fact this kind of media so blatantly manipulates such very well established and very well documented historical and current facts is orwellian.
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how can a strong currency be bad for a country that is trying to recover from years of hyper inflation?
The media doesn't understand inflation
If the peso was weak, they would criticize Milei for a weak currency
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The media doesn't understand inflation
They don't need to, they say what they are paid to say
If the peso was weak, they would criticize Milei for a weak currency
Exactly right, this is the modus operandi
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Inflation or hyper inflation means the currency is devalued or worthless
I don't see any downside for Argentina with a stronger peso
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Based on our previous conversations, I had the impression that they were getting lots of stuff wrong. That's why I also stopped reading it in detail and just mentioned the one thing that was nagging at me the most.
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You do a good to yourself. For the record, I did devote a time before to read this articles while being conscious on their intentions, but I did so to actually put myself to test by being confronted and challenged in my knowledge and understanding. Once it became predictable I stopped.
But, be wary: none if this is made because they "get it wrong". It's a deliberate propaganda strategy. The nobility will lose its privileges if people starts seeing Milei's measures with good eyes. Traditional media is nothing but an unofficial state department.
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I agree completely. There are two things going on and they have to be treated differently, even though they'll look similar:
  1. Good faith normies will get the story wrong, because of their cognitive biases and inaccurate worldview. They can be responded to with corrections of the record.
  2. Bad faith normies will get the story wrong, because they already knew their conclusions before they started looking into the facts. They have to be ignored.
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