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Trump’s Dollar Tantrums and Bitcoin's Rallying Cry? (FT, Eswad Prasad)www.ft.com/content/3b104ff1-3091-4d1e-b147-2de2cf3de0e5
644 sats \ 7 comments \ @denlillaapan 16h econ
Prasad is a Cornell econ professor who hates bitcoin. He's wrote an entire book it--The Future of Money, and other monetary things. MAJOR Bitcoin derangement syndrome.
Now he's in the FT complaining:
US president-elect Donald Trump wants a weaker dollar in order to boost exports, protect American jobs from foreign competition and reduce the trade deficit. He also wants a strong dollar and will not brook any challenges to its dominance in global finance.
As far as that observation goes, it's fine. Can't have it both ways.
What's also true is that both of these stories are overblown; "cheap" FX is nowhere near as important for a country for export-related purposes as is largely believed, and strong currency is nowhere near as beneficial for a country as lots of randos believe.
Also, most administrations work at cross-purposes with another portion of that admin: welcome to the nature of octopus-like, oversized governments. Prasad is kicking in open doors here.
Dollar dominance, while totally a thing--which I've written about here--is probably coming to an end in the next 20 or so years.
On the bitcoin portion, he's off: Volatility is not that big of a deal. That argument, like so many other old ones, impress nobody.
Here's how Matt Levine put the bitcoin-Trump connection in a Bloomberg newsletter a few weeks back:
"One possible interpretation here is that crypto, for late-adopting US investors, is a sort of straddle on Donald Trump’s presidency: It will go up if he does really well, and it will go up if he does really poorly. One view is that crypto is now linked to Trump, who has set himself up as a pro-crypto president and promised to establish a strategic Bitcoin reserve, so the better Trump does, the better that is for crypto:" (non-paywalled here: https://newsletterhunt.com/emails/131631)
The incumbent/establishment types are definitely out throwing dirt. Oh well; next block, please.
Here's a non-paywalled version: https://archive.md/7SgBX
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20 sats \ 1 reply \ @028559d218 14h
2, 3, or 4 Billion people using Bitcoin in some form or fashion (whether it be savings, investment, or daily spending) will mean NGU. By definition.
It's not 'trump' or 'kamala' or 'being early' or 'being late' - when Bitcoin is a savings refuge and spending medium to millions/billions on a daily basis, there is only so much Bitcoin and only so much blockspace. The exchange rate, logically, in comparison with today would be vastly higher. Much, much much higher.
There is so much BS in the media - WSJ, Bloomberg, FT you name it... they barely even mention Bitcoin really except to throw it in together with Tron and barely-used blockchains or downright scams. And then when they do mention Bitcoin it's clear the authors have never made a Bitcoin transaction.
Never held their own keys.
Never used or inputted a seed phrase.
Never mined Bitcoin (even with a small/personal miner)
and certainly never used the lightning network.
No stacker news. No nostr. No cheap and quick transactions on "layer 2" of the same proof of work...
Zip, zilch, nothing.
And then of course they're like 'it has no used case'. Well duh if they've never fucking used it of course it wouldn't have a 'use case' to them based on their experience they don't have.
The bottom line is that Bitcoin is a 130-year experiment (while it's still being 'mined') and this is year 15-16. Noone is late to Bitcoin, Bitcoin is just getting started.
Ask your uber driver if they have a 'lightning wallet'... I can't find one who's ever even heard of it and if they've never even heard of it... and Lightning is still being developed then Bitcoin has a long, substantial, and meaningful future ahead of it particularly from education and people figuring out 'what it is'.
My guess is that Bitcoin needs another 10 years for Lightning to be really widespread and common.
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0 sats \ 0 replies \ @Solomonsatoshi 8h
Bitcoin use as a MoE has been very slyly and successfully obstructed. It is difficult to see how this might change as it appears to be the primary method being applied by the legacy fiat powers to subtly but effectively capture, contain and control the protocol. Most Bitcoiners don't even see it- that's how sly it is.
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20 sats \ 3 replies \ @Undisciplined 15h
That's right. NGU whether Trump does well or poorly. NGU regardless. Bitcoin don't give a shit.
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36 sats \ 1 reply \ @south_korea_ln 15h
Yeah, a colleague who I consider intellectually much smarter than myself asked me recently about why I think BTC goes up at the moment. He seemed stuck on the Trump effect. I told him, for me, BTC was bound to go up. There is no other reason. At most, Trump was a catalyst in the recent uptick, but we're just at that bullish point in the cycle. Any good news would have had such effect. And in a bear market, any good news would have had no effect. It's annoying/amusing when each little change in price triggers media to try to find correlation with something that happened in the real world. Anyhow, I stopped him short, as I don't like talking about Bitcoin in the NGU context :)
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0 sats \ 0 replies \ @Undisciplined 15h
I'm not sure I've used "NGU" anywhere else. I share your lack of interest in that aspect of bitcoin.
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0 sats \ 0 replies \ @Solomonsatoshi 8h
Bitcoin is not being used or perceived as a P2P payments protocol.
It has become increasingly a speculative commodity increasingly captured and controlled by institutional bankers and brokers.
Most Bitcoin appear in blissful ignorance of this - perhaps due to the windfall speculative gains they have enjoyed so far.
But without MoE P2P payments use and utility Bitcoin is a FAILED revolution. It fails to confront and present an alternative to the fiat hegemony over MoE. It is relegated to being a relatively harmless speculative plaything- held increasingly in the custody of bankers and their nominees.
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0 sats \ 0 replies \ @Solomonsatoshi 8h
'Thus, in one final paradox, the parlous state of other countries means that Trump’s policies (and his tantrums about the currency) might strengthen the dollar in both the short run and the long run rather than hurting its value or dominance. This is the case whether or not one believes in US exceptionalism. And the rest of the world has only itself to blame.'
But this is US Exceptionalism...writ large and blind.
Blind to the fact that China has won the trade war. Trump can impose tariffs all he likes- this is only admission that US manufacturing cannot compete with Chinese.
China is now challenging the US based institutional framework- by sponsoring Russia and Iran and N.Korea in their attacks on the west.
All nations must trade with China or suffer significant negative effects- loss of commodity exports and more costly imports (inflation).
Chinas control over Hong Kong and its already operational CBDC gives it the potential to reverse engineer the global trade payments system hegemony which was long ago imposed upon China and all other non western nations
China has already built a an alternative trade payments system that serves Iran, Russia and N.Korea and is open to any other refugees from the USD SWIFT hegemony.
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