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The problem is that one of those "x"'s is twice as large as the other.
You have to use something like x and 2x for the smaller and larger quantities, respectively. That gives you an expected value of 1.5x from switching, which is equal to the expected value of what you have.
That's right. Not a big challenge for you to spot this error, I'm sure.
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Opportunity cost, baby!
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