However, in 1946, the United States Strategic Bombing Survey published the following assessment,

Based on a detailed investigation of all the facts and supported by the testimony of the surviving Japanese leaders involved, it is the Survey’s opinion that certainly prior to 31 December 1945, and in all probability prior to 1 November 1945, Japan would have surrendered even if the atomic bombs had not been dropped, even if Russia had not entered the war, and even if no invasion had been planned or contemplated. (emphasis added)

In light of this early post-war evidence, it is doubtful that such a defeated force could have caused 500,000 American deaths or more. Shortly following Nagasaki, Churchill claimed that the bombings saved well over 1,200,000 Allied lives. In 1953, Winston Churchill wrote, “To quell the Japanese resistance man by man and conquer the country yard by yard might well require the loss of a million American lives and half that number of British…” (emphasis added). This was based on memories of the Battle of Okinawa (65,631 casualties; 7,374 deaths), thus, nowhere near 500,000 American deaths, let alone “a million.”