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Regardless of what the CPI data says, it may very well be that political worries about price inflation will have to take a back seat at the Fed because the Treasury needs the Fed to step in and force down interest rates to keep the federal government’s mounting deficits manageable. After all, with quarterly interest payments on the national debt now reaching north of a trillion dollars, debt service will consume the federal budget unless the Fed intervenes to force down interest rates. History has shown that the Fed has always intervened in this way when “asked,” and its safe bet the Fed and the Treasury are already focusing on debt management as a significant political problem.
Again, the data from one source and the data from another source show two different results. So the Federal Reserve has a choice of policies and, of course, they choose to intervene in the interest market.
In the recent discrepancies, the household survey has turned out to be more accurate. I suspect that's true again.
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I think so, too. I think the survey is much more rigorous than what they are processing at BLS. Going tot he households directly gives a much better quality image of the employment not just quantitative.
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