Is that the common way to think about a prediction market? Makes sense. Well, I just took care of what I think are realistic odds: 75% yes. The procedure for impeachment has started, they have 190 assured votes, and I think they need another 108 from the ruling party. He is unpopular even within his own ranks, so I think it is a realistic outcome. The only thing that might not play in my favor here is that the procedure can be stretched out up to 6 months. My feeling though is that the ones that want to impeach him, want to do it as fast as possible.