If the US gvt actually did adopt a Bitcoin strategic reserve by starting to print(dilute) USD to buy Bitcoin Would USD fall or rise in market value? Or would that go MSTR way, the more they dilute the higher market value goes?
pull down to refresh
17 sats \ 5 replies \ @freetx 3 Dec
I don't think the amounts in question are enough to really move the dollar market.
1M BTC at todays prices would be is 95B. Thats just a single Zelensky visit amount.
reply
10 sats \ 4 replies \ @piecover OP 3 Dec
Ok, a 100x from here is almost 10T for 1M BTC just saying
reply
9 sats \ 3 replies \ @freetx 3 Dec
Yes, but I don't think we will get 100x without governments buying along the way. Meaning, the 100x happens after US Gov gets a strategic reserve.
Personally, I think retail has almost no effect on BTC price anymore. (Sure it has some effect but like single digit percent). All the real moves in price are now institutional-only. Saylor can announce he's buying $1B in BTC and the price jumps 2%....there is simply no way for retail investors to compete with those amounts.
Point being, to get us to 100x is no longer in the hands of small hodlers. It will require institution and government on-boarding to propel to that level.
reply
10 sats \ 1 reply \ @piecover OP 3 Dec
Btw 100x from here doesn't mean we need 100x more money coming in. Bitcoin has a multiplier effect, if enough holders refuse to sell bellow $10Million then buyers need to simply raise their bid above it.
reply
59 sats \ 0 replies \ @freetx 3 Dec
Yep. I guesstimate that the multiplier effect is probably around 5-6x. At least thats what ETF money vs Market Cap has shown this year. (total ballpark calculations on my part)
reply
0 sats \ 0 replies \ @piecover OP 3 Dec
Agreed, only time will tell
reply
6 sats \ 3 replies \ @LowK3y19 3 Dec
I think it will pump BTC but hurt the US dollar
reply
0 sats \ 2 replies \ @piecover OP 3 Dec
How would it hurt USD?
reply
3 sats \ 1 reply \ @LowK3y19 3 Dec
Because they would probably still buy bitcoin with usd that has interest tied to us the citizens so in time bring the value down
reply
0 sats \ 0 replies \ @piecover OP 3 Dec
Ok
reply
6 sats \ 2 replies \ @kepford 3 Dec
No. I think bitcoiners underestimate the hold of USD. Not in the short run. In the long run USD will fail faster because of bitcoin. That's my opinion at least. But it could be 50 years or more. Hard to say and I question anyone that claims to know.
reply
53 sats \ 1 reply \ @piecover OP 3 Dec
Well, I think printing USD to buy BTC can only prolong USD lifespan therefore raise its value up at least in the short term(5-10 years).
reply
6 sats \ 0 replies \ @kepford 3 Dec
I think it depends
reply
3 sats \ 0 replies \ @BeeAye 4 Dec
i think the only thing that hurts the USD is if less people used it, thus weakening its chokehold as the dominant payments network. the US govt buying btc doesnt necessarily affect that reality. if simpletons keep using the diluted dollar post-btc purchase, it doesnt fail. if people wake up and use btc for peer to peer transactions, the US dollar has a problem.
reply
3 sats \ 0 replies \ @IroncladDev 3 Dec
Since there's nothing to back the US dollar, the people who operate the money printer has already basically fooled everyone into exchanging things of value for pieces of paper
Not everyone will be willing to sell so the price of bitcoin will go up a ton
I'm not sure how it'll affect the US dollar though. It'll probably make it decline a little faster than it is without a massive effect
reply