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713 sats \ 10 comments \ @BlokchainB 27 Nov Stacker_Sports

Logged into DraftKings today and got this message:

I was shocked DraftKings didn’t acknowledge this goal for Tuch on the night of the game. I am glad the NHL oracle got it right!

Now it got me thinking about DLC betting on Bitcoin on why the oracle problem is so difficult to solve with smart contracts.

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208 sats \ 6 replies \ @Undisciplined 28 Nov

At some point, there's someone making the call.

I know @ek has spent a lot of time thinking about the oracle problem. Maybe he found an elegant solution.

29 sats \ 5 replies \ @ek 28 Nov

Maybe multisig oracles would help.

I also had the idea that an oracle would only decide the outcome if you can’t agree with your counterparty on it but that only works if you actually have a peer as a counterparty and not a market maker.

63 sats \ 4 replies \ @Undisciplined 28 Nov

Right, and a peer that isn't a sore loser about it. People can behave very spitefully when they're losing.

23 sats \ 3 replies \ @ek 28 Nov

That's where bonds can come in. If you lie and the oracle decides against you, you lose your bond.

I still think p2p betting would be pretty cool where you know who you're betting against and nostr would make the integration of this social aspect quite easy.

I just need to accept that I don't have enough time to work on SN and some kind of prediction market. So delphi.market is on halt until further notice. Maybe I'll release some version on mainnet next year, haha

21 sats \ 2 replies \ @Undisciplined 28 Nov

At that point, many people will be put off by the complexity and expense.

30 sats \ 1 reply \ @ek 28 Nov

I think it just depends on the implementation. But maybe the oracle problem isn't that big of a problem anyway.

0 sats \ 0 replies \ @Undisciplined 28 Nov

There are probably clever designs that make everything feel simple.

89 sats \ 1 reply \ @grayruby 28 Nov

Hmmm interesting. How soon did they declare the bet a loss after the game? I see sometimes fanduel takes quite awhile to close a game and I wonder if it because there is something statistical that needs to be looked at before they can say yes or no on whether the bet won.

40 sats \ 0 replies \ @BlokchainB OP 28 Nov

Soon as the game was over. But the box score had Tuch getting the goal. I was perplexed

74 sats \ 0 replies \ @sangekrypto 28 Nov

So far, I'm not sure about this fortune teller, even if it's true, it might be due to coincidence.