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TL:DR

🎯 Nope hard pass on this keeping my 1M sats 🎯

USD/BTC = $94,289 Block 871,968 1M sats = $943
BTC on Balance Sheet = 0 One share of ENPH = 76,024 sats ($71.70) 13 shares of ENPH per 1M sats

The Company Enphase Inc.

  • Market cap = 95,742 BTC ($9.0B)
  • PE = 145 (paying $145 for $1 of earnings)
  • Dividend? = No
  • Debt =. 13,857 BTC ($1.3B)
  • Cash = 17,801 ($1.67B)
  • Expected earnings growth = 46%
Enphase ( ticker: ENPH) We are a global energy technology company originally founded in March 2006. We deliver smart, easy-to-use solutions that manage solar generation, storage and communication on one platform. Our intelligent microinverters work with virtually every solar panel made, and when paired with our smart technology, results in one of the industry's best-performing clean energy systems.
Today, our intelligent microinverters work with virtually every solar panel made, and when paired with our award-winning smart battery technology, results in one of the industry's best-performing clean energy systems. For the first time in the evolution of our centuries-old grid, people can get paid for the clean energy they produce and share with their communities, helping to build a new energy future that harnesses the sun. This clean, free, abundant source of energy can power our lives and ultimately help replace fossil fuels altogether. We have shipped more than 73.0 million microinverters, and approximately 4.0 million Enphase residential and commercial systems have been deployed in more than 150 countries
We design, develop, manufacture and sell home energy solutions that manage energy generation, energy storage and control and communications on one intelligent platform. We have revolutionized the solar industry by bringing a systems approach to solar technology and by pioneering a semiconductor-based microinverter that converts energy at the individual solar module level and, combined with our proprietary networking and software technologies, provides advanced energy monitoring and control.
The Enphase Energy System uses a single technology platform for seamless management of the entire system, including IQ® Microinverters, IQ® Batteries, IQ® EV Charger, and other hardware. Installers use the Installer App to rapidly commission system components, and system owners may use the Enphase App to monitor their energy production, consumption, and storage. We have a built-in system redundancy in both photovoltaic ("PV") generation and energy storage, eliminating the risk that comes with a single-point of failure.

Bull(🐂 )and Bear(🐻)Case:

Bull case 🐂

The cost of materials for PV becomes very economical where it becomes a commodity. Thus the installation cost for these green technologies drop significantly thus showing a clear path for growth. Another way to think about this as bitcoin goes up in price more people will enter the energy markets looking to earn bitcoin by mining. This could cause the price and labor to become more affordable for mass adoption.
The tech stack is very nice. I use Enphase for my solar setup and the app is very sleek. The micro inverter technology makes the system very flexible from a maintenance and expansion standpoint.

Bear case 🐻

Since 2006 the cost to install these systems have not come down in any significant economies of scale. Only the more affluent Americans can still afford these systems. That is with all the federal subsidies in the form of tax credits. While the sun has unlimited energy it doesn’t shine all the time. Plus the density of solar energy output is terrible. At 145 PE this may be unprofitable zombie company that has been kept alive by cheap credit and the push to green energy.

1M sats or 13 ENPH shares?

I like Enphase. I am currently a customer. My system has worked flawlessly for years. The app is really cool as well. As bitcoin grows people will search for energy sources to mine and in some locations Enphase will have a lot of business. But is it worth for me to dip into my cold storage sell 1M sats to buy 13 Enphase shares now?

🚫NOPE!👎

I rather keep the 1 million sats today! Only getting 13 shares for 1 million sats doesn’t sound like a bargain. Enphase is projected to grow less than Bitcoin average fiat growth. Selling sats now to purchase this stock doesn’t sound like a good investment. I don’t see a path where Enphase goes up 10x to 90 billion before bitcoin reaches $10T market cap. Enphase has a lot of head winds to overcome to justify overpaying for this stock today. If the bull case plays out and USA become a green energy machine then yeah maybe having 13 shares of Enphase stock is better than 1M sats but I am unwilling to take that bet. I’m keeping my sats. I kept this stock on my watch list for at least a year and I have seen it bleed out. The YouTube video does a really good job explaining why this stock is in trouble. I will continue to watch it but it’s not worth 1M sats today.