However, it's not simply 800,000 times current market price..... Anyway, it's more than the $71.4B that Microsoft Copilot told me:
Correct. Another way to look at it is: Funds Flow vs Market Cap.
Lets take an simplistic example: We have auctioned 5 identical rare baseball cards on eBay. Here are the results of sales.
Card 1: Sold for $100 Card 2: Sold for $150 Card 3: Sold for $250 Card 4: Sold for $500 Card 5: Sold for $1000
The "market cap" of that particular card is $5000 (last sale X total cards). However only $2000 in "Funds Flow" produced that $5000 market cap. So in this case its a 2.5x ratio.
In essence, this means that, on average, every $1 put into purchasing raised the market cap by $2.50.
These are made-up numbers, but the point is each additional dollar put into purchases winds up have a multiplier effect on total market-cap.
From my cursory research, I think IBIT (Blackrock BTC ETF) has taken in 28.92B in fund inflows since launch. This is only Blackrock and not the others....so...
Lets round that up to $35B to roughly estimate all Bitcoin ETFs. In the same time, BTC price has moved from approx $45,000 to $88,000 over that time frame. This increase represents a market cap jump from $900B to 1.8T...so an increase of about $900B.
Thus $35B in inflows produced $900B in market cap gain (a 25x). Obviously this is a flawed analysis since its only capturing ETF inflows and not all the private/OTC purchases. However, I think its safe to assume that the ratio could be 10x.
Therefore $60B in purchasing inflows (ie. US buying 750,000 coins) could produce somewhere between $600B and $1.5T
....as you say though, such a move would likely ignite a game-theory inspired bidding war...so the US may need to spend significantly more than $60B to acquire those 1M coins...thus the total worldwide funds flow could be massive and result in $10+T in market cap.....
DISCLAIMER: This is all made-up and could be grossly off...but as back-of-envelope guesses its entertaining to think about.
Correct. Another way to look at it is: Funds Flow vs Market Cap.
Lets take an simplistic example: We have auctioned 5 identical rare baseball cards on eBay. Here are the results of sales.
Card 1: Sold for $100
Card 2: Sold for $150
Card 3: Sold for $250
Card 4: Sold for $500
Card 5: Sold for $1000
The "market cap" of that particular card is $5000 (last sale X total cards). However only $2000 in "Funds Flow" produced that $5000 market cap. So in this case its a 2.5x ratio.
In essence, this means that, on average, every $1 put into purchasing raised the market cap by $2.50.
These are made-up numbers, but the point is each additional dollar put into purchases winds up have a multiplier effect on total market-cap.
From my cursory research, I think IBIT (Blackrock BTC ETF) has taken in 28.92B in fund inflows since launch. This is only Blackrock and not the others....so...
Lets round that up to $35B to roughly estimate all Bitcoin ETFs. In the same time, BTC price has moved from approx $45,000 to $88,000 over that time frame. This increase represents a market cap jump from $900B to 1.8T...so an increase of about $900B.
Thus $35B in inflows produced $900B in market cap gain (a 25x). Obviously this is a flawed analysis since its only capturing ETF inflows and not all the private/OTC purchases. However, I think its safe to assume that the ratio could be 10x.
Therefore $60B in purchasing inflows (ie. US buying 750,000 coins) could produce somewhere between $600B and $1.5T
....as you say though, such a move would likely ignite a game-theory inspired bidding war...so the US may need to spend significantly more than $60B to acquire those 1M coins...thus the total worldwide funds flow could be massive and result in $10+T in market cap.....
DISCLAIMER: This is all made-up and could be grossly off...but as back-of-envelope guesses its entertaining to think about.