Markets are pricing in a 1/20 chance Trump will be assasinated before Jan 20th \ stacker news ~Politics_And

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Markets are pricing in a 1/20 chance Trump will be assasinated before Jan 20th

343 sats \ 12 comments \ @zuspotirko 13 Nov Politics_And_Law

177 sats \ 4 replies \ @zuspotirko OP 13 Nov

I might have invented the assassination part for clickbait reasons but there are not many other possibilities for Trump to not get inaugurated.

1/20 is a lot. Certainly higher than the natural chance of dying from a heart attack.

Theoretically this could also mean he steps down before inauguration. I don't think this is what markets expect. But theoretically a president-elect can legally choose to step down before inauguration & the line of succession would come into play. Which would automatically mean president Vance.

Conclusion: this is an odd stat. Anybody got any better explanations than my 3 suggestions?

3 sats \ 1 reply \ @SimpleStacker 13 Nov

Besides assassination/death, there's also the possibility that Democrats try to stage some kind of electoral college revolt/coup/lawfare.

I recall hearing some noise about using a constitutional clause that says traitors can't be president, and since he "incited insurrection" on Jan 6th, 2021, he's not constitutionally eligible to be president.

0 sats \ 0 replies \ @zuspotirko OP 13 Nov

I can follow but I don't see anyone make this bet now.

Would have been an interesting bet a month ago. But now Harris has already conceded.

21 sats \ 1 reply \ @ek 13 Nov

I might have invented the assassination part for clickbait reasons

How would you feel when you click on this and you see something completely different? Heavy downzap for this.

but there are not many other possibilities for Trump to not get inaugurated.

Stating personal conclusions as some kind of fact is a classic clickbait, arguing why your personal conclusion might make sense doesn't make your clickbait better

0 sats \ 0 replies \ @zuspotirko OP 13 Nov

Well, markets can't talk and therefore we don't know what the market is actually pricing in with this gap for sure.

I can't think of many other reasons other than assassination. After two assassination attempts ... what else could it be?

So that's just my best guess. As I already said: the stepping down or medical incident reasons are probably close to zero. What else is there?

45 sats \ 2 replies \ @StillStackinAfterAllTheseYears 13 Nov

The 1.6% can't be for assassination, since Vance gets inaugurated in that case.

21 sats \ 0 replies \ @StillStackinAfterAllTheseYears 13 Nov

But 1.6 say Harris gets inaugurated, according to that. That's literally impossible from an assassination (it can only happen with some extreme shenanigans by the Dems and the electoral college)

0 sats \ 0 replies \ @zuspotirko OP 13 Nov

Doesn't make sense. If Vance gets inaugurated then Trump doesn't get inaugurated. Therefore the 5% would win their bet.

42 sats \ 1 reply \ @satgoob 13 Nov

Isn't part of that gap due to a bid / ask spread and interest in taking the opposition? Also, the Kamala position is probably a relic of pre-election where people haven't liquidated or now can't

3 sats \ 0 replies \ @zuspotirko OP 13 Nov

Oh that's a good point. The odds would be more in the 3%ish range then.

25 sats \ 0 replies \ @DesertDave 13 Nov

That's an evil way if putting it. There are lots of things that can happen. I trust there isn't a market for that actually. This is click baity.

0 sats \ 0 replies \ @kepford 13 Nov

I mean... that's not crazy to me. Considering he has had two attempts already.

I always said that if Ron Paul had been elected he'd be assassinated. For those that do not understand why you need to better understand how much money and power is on the line with the federal government and administrative agencies.