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TL;DR Since the election has occurred it is highly unlikely we will see any BTC or crypto legislation be passed into law this year. Due to the Republicans sweep of the election next year they can easily move legislation through and get it signed into law
Since the beginning of this Congress, it has been clear that BTC and the entire crypto space were going to play their biggest role in legislation thus far. When Chairman Patrick McHenry took over as the Chairman of the House Financial Services Committee, he immediately began scheduling hearings to allow Members to learn about the space and ask questions. It did not take him long to build a bipartisan effort to address this even though the Ranking Member Rep. Maxin Waters came out against every crypto bill.
After a year of negotiations and honest to God good bipartisan work, the FIT21 Act was introduced and passed through the Committee. From there it cleared the House Floor with significant Democratic support making it appear that the Senate would finally have their hand forced to act upon it. However, that never came to fruition and now a new huge factor has emerged.
On election night Republicans did something I did not see happening even though I work on The Hill and hoped for it to happen. They pulled off winning the government Trifecta (winning the Presidency, Senate, and House) and it was about as absolute and thorough as you could imagine. We knew that this was going to be a lame-duck Congress before the elections however I do not think anyone thought the election would go as they did really killing most legislation in Congress.
Due to this sweep, a new can of worms has opened up, likely making Democrats who had a place to negotiate two months ago beside themselves. Republicans do not have a ton of reasons to give the current Admin any wins besides what must be done like funding the government. Everything else House and Senate Republicans would rather serve up to President-Elect Trump for quick and easy wins next year.
Due to the election Republicans do not need to bend to the whims of people like Sen. Sherrod Brown or Sen. Elizabeth Warren as they have been flagging all sorts of issues with just about everything. Even House Democrats have criticized how they have handled this. Starting next Congress with control of the House, Senate, and Presidency the Republicans can use a process called Budget Reconciliation to pass certain types of legislation in a simple majority manner. This bypasses the filibuster in the Senate as well which is critical in getting around the 60-vote threshold.
The rules of this roughly are it needs to tie to Federal Government spending, revenue, and the debt limit. Now the Senate can only pass one of these bills per year it will likely contain many parts but the FIT21 Act will likely be one of them. This along with the ban on CBDC and codifying BTC's independence from the SEC by making sure it is not considered an asset will be huge. For now though unless the Democrats and Biden Admin just roll over and do not try to alter anything this legislation will be put on the backburner until next year.
53 sats \ 1 reply \ @freetx 13 Nov
Given the sweep, crypto-twitter is advocating that they tear up FIT21 and rewrite to be even more accommodating and pass the revised version.
How likely do you think that would be?
Further, Sen Lummis keeps saying that SBR (Strategic Bitcoin Reserve) may be a Day 1 issue....is that even possible?
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So with the Day 1 issue I mean yeah Trump could sign an executive order but it legally doesn't have a ton of standing and would be more of a posturing thing.
Crypto-twitter obviously wants to up the anti and there may be some things that are changed but the framework will likely remain the same. The SEC and CFTC will each get X and Y like they do in FIT21. I could see a possible expansion in what would be covered by the CFTC over the SEC for alts like Twitter favorite SOL and possibly something with NFTs being done. Democratic Rep. Torress, who has been a huge ally of Chairman McHenry, has skewered Gensler over this multiple times now.
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A ban on a CBDC would be huge.
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So one passed the House months ago! Only for the Senate Banking Committee led by soon-to-be former Sen. Brown to not touch it.
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Does the sweep mean a government shutdown is unlikely.
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Honestly... I wish I knew because I would love to go home for Christmas! As it currently stands the month runs out the 20th and while it would be logical to just pass a clean CR until I'd day March or April of 2025 issues have already emerged but for once it isn't even the House. Approps Ranking Member Republican Susan Collins is saying we cant keep government funding this high and honestly she was one of the last people I thought would flag this because she will be the head of it next year.
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So nothing is happening until January/February. Got it.
But then what?
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I believe it will be included in the Budget Reconciliation bill. Now when they would push that through I am not sure since they will only get 1 for next year. They could if they think they have 60 votes in the Senate just move it through the House and the Senate like a normal bill and maybe they have enough Dem senators to do that but I am not 100% sold on that.
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