so at what 'price' of Bitcoin is it correct and most logical to spend it?
was that 1$ per Bitcoin? Was Bitcoin at the correct 'value' back then? was it really only worth a dollar? So it's only worth 87k today? And it was only worth 30k last year? What exactly changed in those time periods?
How about if 2 people used it? 5 people? 10 people? 20 people? so if only 20 people are using Bitcoin (as opposed to 20 million) the price "per Bitcoin" is going to be the same? 20 vs 20 million?
No of course not. The more people that hold, use, and accumulate Bitcoin the higher the price of Bitcoin 'per unit'. Therefore it makes sense... that were the entire world to use Bitcoin (which I believe they will eventually) the price would be very high... probably in the millions.
If I thought an asset were worth millions based on its inherent qualities and growth potential would I sell it for 20$? How about 50? or 100? or even 1000?!
No way. I would continue to HODL it until it reasonably appreciates until I think it's valued fairly as a reflection of its inherent qualities in the marketplace. If I had a great piece of art, a great piece of music, a great "invention" of some sort... why would I sell it for less than I think it's truly worth?
Well... this write-up is in part an attempt to understand what the 'addressable market' should be of Bitcoin and how Bitcoin should be priced once the informational asymmetry in the marketplace decreases. Once people understand 'what Bitcoin is'.
Once the entire world is using Bitcoin (probably for commodities trading as the 'high-powered money') the price will be much higher and that's not greed that's smart.
I'm all for spending Bitcoin and using lightning... but let's not kid ourselves. Spending Bitcoin at these prices is logically charitable and probably grossly undermarket based on its inherent qualities.
The post is designed to examine that and compare Bitcoin with other assets that hold value.
Bitcoins primary value and innovation is in providing an alternative to the state imposed fiat monopoly which is a monopoly over MoE. There are plenty of speculative commodities all with their armies of touts talking up their potential value. But to provide an alternative to the state imposed monopoly over MoE is Bitcoins fundamental underlying value - to mistake its value as a speculative commodity is to fall into the most obvious trap of those who want it captured and controlled and NOT used as a MoE. Bitcoin has been consistently and very vigorously obstructed from being used as a MoE. In many countries its use as a payments protocol is outright banned. In the liberal western democracies CG taxes act to effectively make use as a MoE such a burden that very few businesses or consumers have adopted it for MoE. As long as Bitcoin is contained within a safe narrative of it being a speculative commodity it has been captured and controlled- without many even realising it.
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I would agree with you.
But I also believe that Bitcoin should be much 'bigger', 'well adopted' and people much better educated on 'what Bitcoin is' before any of that can happen.
I haven't found a single other person who even knows what lightning is. Not one. Zero. And I ask the Uber driver every day if I can tip them in lightning and they just look confused.
And read the comments from most major newspapers (at least in the United States) there is only a scant mention of Bitcoin except to conflate it with crypto and think it's a scam.
It's not that people 'don't want to use Bitcoin'. They simply don't know what it is yet, and they have never even heard of lightning.
Has Bitcoin been obstructed? Yes maybe but I think education around what Bitcoin is needs to improve drastically for anything to change. Education is absolutely key and it's what, in my opinion, people need for Bitcoin to be used MoE.
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Yes and now could be the time for use as a MoE to take off- LN is now quite user friendly but the whole media focus has become around fiat denominated price. I only recently really started to use LN again after trying a few years ago and struggling with the whole thing as Im not a tech minded person- but its now possible for a non tech like me to simply open a LN wallet and use it. Stacker News also motivated me to get LN wallet set up. It just requires a push to get people moving toward using Bitcoin as a MoE. And it does require, as you say for people to be made aware of it, and for the regulatory obstacles (CG) to be removed. That may be possible with the new US government, and if it can happen in the US then much wider MoE use could follow globally.
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I love using Lightning. And for that reason I also love using Stacker News.
But I don't think the 'price discovery' of Bitcoin has really happened yet. It's still on-going.
When people figure out 'what Bitcoin is' and price discovery takes place then and only then will people be able to use Bitcoin MoE on a widespread basis.
Until then I think it's unclear to people what Bitcoin even is.
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Unless Bitcoin is used for MoE it will become a purely speculative commodity plaything. It will not be an alternative payment protocol to the fiat monopoly. This is largely the case already. Bitcoin will have failed in its primary objective and ultimately have zero sustainable value...because it will be controlled by fiat market makers. Bankers. Control the narrative and you control the market.
P2P censorship resistant payments protocol - should be encrypted into every sat!
But they have slyly worked around it. How much Bitcoin is not now KYCed? How much of the total market has already been acquired or held by institutional custodians where it cannot be used as a P2P MoE? ETF funds fine print explicitly states the fund managers shall decide which fork, if any, they shall accept. It does not preclude them from initiating one either! Think about it...and these ETF operators are the bankers whose power and wealth is based upon their fiat monopoly.
If they can maintain the delusion that it is a speculative commodity then it will have been captured and controlled and it will never pose a threat to their fiat MoE monopoly.
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I respectfully, completely disagree. Don't let the perfect... be the enemy of the good.
Bitcoin is already, albeit slowly, demonitizing other assets and doing quite well. Is it a MoE on a daily basis? No it isn't and I wish it were. But I believe it needs to be a store of value first then MoE. It is still undergoing price discovery (which could take a while) and that also needs to run its course.
In the meantime, use lightning, buy things with Bitcoin reasonably speaking when you can and enjoy being 'early' to a new technology that the vast majority of the world isn't using yet.
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If the perception of Bitcoin as a speculative commodity is even further entrenched then it will be a small step to impose a ban on private custody and require only authorised institutions manage its custody. Even if a ban is not imposed the effect will be the same- used as a speculative commodity by the majority of hodlers Bitcoin poses very little real threat to the fiat MoE monopoly. MoE monopoly is the basis of fiat monetary power- take a look at SWIFT. You have not thought through the vested interests of the fiat legacy system and how they have already shifted the narrative and gained control over the market.
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