From WSJ.
Pretty cool way to get people to reveal their true preferences:
To solve this problem, Théo argued that pollsters should use what are known as neighbor polls that ask respondents which candidates they expect their neighbors to support. The idea is that people might not want to reveal their own preferences, but will indirectly reveal them when asked to guess who their neighbors plan to vote for.
Théo cited a handful of publicly released polls conducted in September using the neighbor method alongside the traditional method. These polls showed Harris’s support was several percentage points lower when respondents were asked who their neighbors would vote for, compared with the result that came from directly asking which candidate they supported.
He said he also hired his own pollster to conduct private polls for him.
That's interesting but I would probably assume my neighbours are a bunch of commies. I do live in Canada after all.
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In a way that might be better. If you're the outlier, it might be better to know what your neighbors are doing. Otherwise, the pollster is going to assume you're representative.
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It's interesting because I could see this going both ways dependent on the person. Some people might assume others intuitively think the way they think and some people, like myself, assume everyone else thinks contrary to the way I think.
I don't think it is a catch all solution but could be a tool in the tool box. Ultimately, AI will be the best pollster. It will be able to monitor ten thousand data points about each person and in most cases likely be able to predict how and if they will vote.
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That's true, but AI will also have an even worse garbage-in-garbage-out problem, because it lacks any ability to think about the results it's getting. There's also no training dataset, since it never gets to learn who you actually voted for.
It will probably do a good job at precinct level, though.
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Whats really amazing is that he had the confidence to wager 30m on the opinion of his neighbors. Tell me how many of you actually trust your neighbors enough to actually bet that much?
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zero trust in my neighbors
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41 sats \ 1 reply \ @grayruby 8 Nov
You live in California. Might as well be Canada with nicer weather.
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I wouldnt have the balls to wager 30m on the opinion of my neighbors. Lets be real.
"... I do live in Canada after all.." Sorry about that , lol. That used to be a nice country with absolutely awesome nature. When you getting rid of that commie in charge? It's your turn now :-)
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It’s still a beautiful country. Our next election is Oct 2025 and we will be doing just that.
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34 sats \ 0 replies \ @ek 7 Nov
I guess if you say it like this they will also know what you will vote for lol
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I like the "neighbor poll" method. But my suspicion is it only works until everybody knows about how it works and then these polls will stop working too.
No matter what - I don't think that's why he made such big win. He just lucked out being right when nobody knew. Hindsight is twentytwenty
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Probably how this guy is feeling right now
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That's pretty similar to a common IV approach. I wonder if there was any connection or if it's just independent insight.
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36 sats \ 1 reply \ @Cje95 7 Nov
Betting $30 mil to get $50 mil isn't to shabby! The popular vote win was the wild bet in my mind. No Republican has won it since 2004 and I mean who would have though Trump would have?! It goes to show just how poorly the Harris campaign performed.
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I predicted Trump would win the popular vote the night before.
SN comment
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15 sats \ 1 reply \ @fm 7 Nov
He said he also hired his own pollster to conduct private polls for him.
If he has 30M to bet, this is not surprising :)
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Internal polls are private polls that are more expensive but also more accurate.
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Woosh... that's the sound of every last cent leaving traditional polling methods into this neighbor method. Unless the corporate media enjoys lying to the public.
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k00b, did you end up placing a bet? If you had that kind of money, l guess you would look for the best outcome. It isnt like the whale did anything illegal.
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58 sats \ 1 reply \ @k00b OP 7 Nov
I only gamble on myself. 😇
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That is a good way of gambling. At least when you lose, you know its on you.
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What a joke! The only way to get an accurate reading on what people want and who they would vote for is to do it with money. Have them put their money where their mouth is. Isn’t that what SN says to do? When people have skin in the game, they act differently than when it is only hot air from the mouth in the game. This is a good reason to make people pay a poll tax to vote. Make people put skin in the game, otherwise they can stay home. BTW, this disenfranchises only those who do not wish to pay-to-play.
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Another question similar to the neighbor question is "Who do you think will win?"
Betting or prediction markets answer "who do you think will win?"
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Thats interesting. Makes a lot sense.
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I'm not buying it. He must be from Trump's camp and not a Frenchman.
But I accept that he's a good analyst who from the beginning knew that Harris was a weak and gonna lose the elections. All wise men knew it.
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stackers have outlawed this. turn on wild west mode in your /settings to see outlawed content.