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23 sats \ 9 replies \ @Undisciplined 7 Nov \ parent \ on: Political Polarization Relatively Strong in the U.S. Politics_And_Law
The two you mentioned, CA and TX, because they are the largest economies and make the most geographic sense.
Alaska, Hawaii, and Vermont also have significant independence movements.
In the event of CA or TX splitting off, I would expect other states to join them: i.e. the rest of the West Coast leaving with CA and most of the middle/southern parts of the country leaving with TX.
These are my own thoughts, but CA could never run without the government subsidies.
It doesnt even have its own water supply.
If it were to break away, it would just flounder.
Texas on the other hamd, l could see it breaking away and being successful.
From what l have seen, they have quite a bit of independent thinkers there.
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There are other nations that don't have abundant fresh water. CA could continue purchasing water from AZ or ramp up its desalination industry.
They would need economic policy reforms to deal with the loss of federal welfare funding, but CA still contains a lot of wealth and even more unutilized productive potential.
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That's true, but it wouldn't necessarily be a deal breaker. California would still be one of the wealthiest countries on Earth. Europe is substantially poorer than California, for instance.
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California became wealthy through genuine economic productivity and has devolved into a welfare state. That's very similar to the story in much of Europe.
My point is that California wouldn't be any worse off than a typical European nation. That may be worse than its current situation, but it's not really a complete collapse.
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These are all reversible short-term issues, though. I'm not aware of any reasons that CA can't get better, but they will have to work through these problems. That's true whether or not they're independent. The state is on a major decline and that will likely result in a bunch of government defaults on various financial obligations.