Nate Silver had a great point about how difficult it is to evaluate who had the most accurate prediction, since people are offering win probabilities and we only observe one realization.
Given the probabilities assigned by Polymarket, the observed outcome was actually very unlikely, so it isn't obvious how much credit they deserve. There might have been other predictions where the colors don't match perfectly, but the actual outcome had a higher probability.
All that said, I do think prediction markets are the best method for doing this sort of thing.
This is not the kind of HOT TAKE that I look for from @grayruby ~Stacker_Sports podcast.
I demand spicier!
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Nate Silver DESTROYED this claim!
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Did he pay his 100k bet. Haha
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Who had a 100k bet?
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Nate Silver and Keith Rabois. Keith said Trump would win Florida by minimum +8 and more likely double digits. Silver said "stop huffing twitter vibes". Then they bet 100k on it.
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and bitcoin market cap exceeds Silver now
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I too listen to his “Risky Business” podcast.
No in the end Keith chickened out and never actually paid into the bet thru the third party
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16 sats \ 1 reply \ @grayruby 7 Nov
Really? Keith was the one who suggested 100k. You would think he would have been all over that.