Put the price of Bitcoin aside for now. Assume that Bitcoin's purchasing power (per BTC/per sat) continues to 'go up' for the forseeable future... so just put that on the mental back-burner.
Instead imagine some of the political and economic implications of real Bitcoinization in global markets.
Bitcoin becoming a 'world reserve currency' or 'world reserve asset' that's neutral and available to all...
- Large businesses
- All large governments (and small ones too)
- Banks
- High-Net-Worth People
- Pension Funds, Retirement Accounts, Brokerage Accounts 401Ks etc...
The amount of capital yet to flow into Bitcoin must logically be... insane. It is very, very large.
The world has never had a neutral, decentralized, energy-based asset like Bitcoin before - maybe Gold - but Gold is slow, not digital, cannot really be transported quickly, and it has a malleable supply that varies with its price and physical mining.
Bitcoin does not have such a supply shortcoming... it is engineered to be perfect capital across all borders and languages and truly scarce as an engineered store-of-value. It is perfect capital within its technical limitations... and likely has no equal.
- If Bitcoin starts to compete (and there is reason to believe it will under Mr Trump) with US bonds and treasuries as a global safe-haven it will have very serious ramifications for interest rates, investment, the ability and desire of the US to borrow, and the demand for "risk-off" assets like American bonds over the longer term.
To the extent that Bitcoin is 'inflating' slower than the rate of the US economy (for example) in addition to its rate of adoption through institutions and HODLers... Bitcoin 'guarantees' a Risk-Free yield. In other words, it becomes more valuable in 'fiat' terms while remaining risk free just from holding it alone and it 'going up'.
It's not a "yield" (like Proof of Stake) because the one Bitcoin becomes nothing more than one Bitcoin... but because there is only so much Bitcoin and the supply grows slower than the US economy itself it will continue to go-up indefinitely in a deflationary-like way.
I believe this was the essence of the Minneapolis Fed's Anti-Bitcoin Paper of Late... that mathematically there can only be "one" global Risk-Free asset without competition... and to the extent there is Bitcoin and US Bonds the American bonds will be worth less and reduce the government's ability to borrow indefinitely.
- Microstrategy (yes OK spare me the fiat-maxi moans and groans) is already financializing Bitcoin and they are the only ones so far to do this. By offering a 'return' "in dollars" as a product of Bitcoin's adoption, combined with Bitcoin's "risk-free" inflation rate (inflation rate relative to US economic growth and Dollar inflation) buyers can be offered a low-risk yield just by holding Bitcoin and this is a radical idea. Except the 'yield' isn't small IT'S HUGE and low-risk. Or it can be 'tailored' higher or lower, in volatility as financialization of a neutral, global asset all the while remaining money for users. This "BTC Yield" is only offered by one company so far in the entire world (MSTR).
You don't have to like or agree with the financialization of Bitcoin the Money (TM) - it exists and is free for all to hold as they wish and the "Wall-Street-i-Zation" is inevitable to some degree.
- Bitcoin sits in a unique position as digital property, digital gold, digital capital with a high-growth and low-inflation set of fundamentals. Yes it is volatile... but it has the growth-like characteristics of a tech-stock, energy-company, and early internet company all wrapped into an SEC-compliant digital commodity. There is nothing else like it that exists: In short it is a legal, finite, digital monopoly.
Publicly-traded companies can only hold so many securities (other stocks) without regulatory penalties... and assuming the S&P grows at an average 12% per year... Cash, Bonds, and traditional commodities bleed out over time relative to the "cost of capital" - 12% per year.
An intelligent (and I believe realistic) interpretation of Bitcoin's network growth and adoption is faster and more rapid than Cash, Bonds, or Gold (+ other securities that CANNOT be held by public companies) and corporations with a 'Bitcoin treasury' all things being equal are going to vastly out-compete the others.
Especially if they are first.
So save me the moans and groans. If Bitcoin is to become a global-reserve-currency the "early corporate adopters" like Microstrategy will vastly outcompete by offering intelligent products that skirt, if not also incorporate a Bitcoin Standard.
MSTR is the #1 performing stock in the S&P over the last 4 years and this is evidence this strategy is real.
So what happens to Bitcoin's price when eventually 100 other companies adopt the same or similar strategy? The "first" ones will potentially benefit the most... and all will to some degree but these network-effects are exponentially-graded towards early adopters. Which adopters, especially after Mr. Trump's election will potentially be the second US company with such a Bitcoin Treasury Strategy? Microsoft? Dell?
- Although it has not yet transpired... why can't Bitcoin be a neutral commodity traded for other commodities? Early Bitcoiners (H Finney) spoke of Bitcoin being the "high-powered" money for institutions. Well OK screw the institutions... however at the same time what's preventing Bitcoin from being traded for Oil, Gold, Soybeans, Pasteurized Orange Juice... other legal "commodities"... yes legally they are all commodities including Bitcoin. But to the practical extent that Bitcoin is Money (TM) does it really matter? It's value for value, and commodities being traded for one another has precedent for thousands of years.
"OK" you say. "You sold me" maybe some, or all or none of these things will happen in the future (although I would argue they are already happening). What gives? Why should I (as a Bitcoiner) care?
- I'm not going to quote the ECB Paper as I can paraphrase... and
- you already know what it says and if you don't you don't care (lol).
It says that Bitcoinization will increase wealth-inequality between BTC holders and non-holders - and that the theoretical exchange-rate of Bitcoin is essentially... unlimited. Multi-Million-Dollar Bitcoin is theoretically possible with enough time and adoption. And how many people in person do you know that hold Bitcoin especially that self-custody it enough to use Lightning? In other words take it seriously enough to have achieved some level of Mastery of Use (Zapping through Lightning?)
It's not many I bet.
Questions to Ponder:
What would Bitcoin appreciation, globally, especially if adopted by nations worldwide, do to the purchasing power of the Dollar in an inflation-like-scenario?
What, if any, security precautions would you take, or need to take, in a possible scenario where Bitcoin appreciates rapidly over the next 5 years?
How would Bitcoin appreciation and adoption effect Government's ability to borrow and lend? And specifically how would Bitcoin effect capital flight away from the European-Union to lower-tax jurisdictions (for example the United States). Wouldn't Bitcoin accelerate the capital flight... and non-performance of some EU countries especially especially if they are 'hostile' to Bitcoin or HODLers?
In other words, won't most of the Bitcoin just end up in the United States, China, in the hands of institutions and in the custody of steely-eyed HODLers exaggerating the United State's already relative out-performance?
- Finally, I believe that Mr. Trump, although with good intentions and policies that are obviously popular with the American People... is likely accelerating this future, this Bitcoin future, whether it is intentional or not.
Mr. Trump's Tariffs are inflationary.
Mr. Trump's 'Mass-Deportations' are inflationary (by removing many US workers legal or otherwise)
Mr. Trump's continued borrowing, especially through the use of Tax-Cuts, have upward-pressure on interest rates which are inflationary/inflation persisting.
Mr. Trump's pressure or 'influence' on the Fed (to keep rates low) could be inflationary through lower Fed rates... despite the supposed "independence of the Institution." Who's going to tell Mr. Trump "No" now?
Just last night the 10-year Treasury Yields spiked right along-side Bitcoin to a 6-month high as traders anticipate more inflation from Mr. Trump's policies.... all the while the American Voter thinks that Mr. Trump will bring prices down. Which would be deflationary and antithetical to the Fed's mandate...
(Bitcoin spiked almost identically chart-wise to yields in the Wall Street Journal...)
In short it's madness. And it is, in my opinion, a perfect setup for a new and different kind of adoption of Bitcoin as global capital.
- I'll go on: VP Vance's history as a protege of Peter Thiel... an early Bitcoin-Venture-Capitalist from the 2010s and PayPal. Mr Vance's financial disclosures include a six-figure allocation to... Bitcoin through public-disclosure records.
- Mr. Trump has promised to free Ross U - legitimizing Bitcoin as a moral and ethical investment asset for many (if they were concerned previously, despite Mr. Trump's own recent brushes with the law...)
- Mr. Trump has named repeatedly the creation of a "Bitcoin Strategic Reserve" for the United States. If the United States has one... why wouldn't other countries? And who is going to tell President Trump (at this point) "no" or not to deliver with such wide-spread political support?
- Mr. Trump is not exactly a fan of international alliances and entanglements (for better or for worse) and it's logical other countries would want to de-risk from the United States (BRICS comes to mind) through a neutral exchange-medium that's not the Dollar.
This makes even more sense if higher inflation is anticipated or demonstrated through bond yields. Bonds also, can be turned off by their issuer. Bitcoin can't. What asset grows as fast, you can mine yourself, that's independent of the United States that can't be turned off... I'll let you answer that question.
In summary, some of the consequences of Mr. Trump's election, in my humble opinion while they may be wildly good for Bitcoin may not at all be anticipated by most American voters. American voters less impacted by asset inflation (those with stocks, bonds, real estate, Bitcoin etc) are probably those less desperate in today's economy... or less sensitive to prices. By encouraging the adoption of Bitcoin, especially through higher interest rates and debt, Mr. Trump is jump-starting the very asset that competes with the Dollar and could drive wealth-inequality vastly towards HODLers and Bitcoin-Oriented-institutions. Trade-protectionists want to protect their currencies... but that same protectionism in a world where Bitcoin exists could have the opposite effects if it accelerates Bitcoin HODLing, use, and adoption by 3rd-party nation states.
I have to wonder - is there any historical precedent to this? Where one group of people especially at the encouragement of a Central Bank takes a "disliking" to the wealth, prosperity, or good-fortune of others? If Bitcoiners (bear with me here) choose to leave their native homeland at some point where do they go? El Salvador? Switzerland? Portugal? The US? And where does that Bitcoin ultimately end up and to what effect... does it have on that average American who puts a great deal of faith in Mr. Trump's policies?
No-one knows the future, and history is full of unintended consequences and butter-fly-like effects. I believe this election will probably be studied for decades and the story of Bitcoin is right at the middle of it. It's going to be incredibly interesting.
Thank you.