In a nuanced economic performance, September's data reveals a complex interplay of inflationary pressures, labor market resilience, and market expectations. The latest economic indicators paint a picture of measured stability and underlying strength.
Inflation Landscape:
- PCE Year-over-Year: 2.1% (Steady)
- Core PCE: 2.7% (Marginally Exceeding Expectations)
- Monthly PCE Growth: Subtle but Persistent
Labor Market Vitality:
- Initial Jobless Claims: 216,000 (Significantly Below Forecast)
- Continuing Claims: 1,862,000 (Under Projected Levels)
- Unemployment Metrics Signal Economic Robustness
These numbers must look good because we are going into the election.
Everything seems to be showing "good".
It'll be very interesting to see if these trends hold next month.
If Trump wins, are they going to flip the numbers to make it his problem?
Or will he publish low numbers to out everyone.
There many ways it could go down.
US consumer confidence has improved due to falling inflation, although I think they still remain cautious ahead of the November presidential election, but it is a very positive sign. Looks like it's the best since the pandemic