21 sats \ 2 replies \ @Bell_curve 29 Oct \ on: Polling paradox: what actually shapes the numbers? (AKA: Polls are Bullshit) Politics_And_Law
There is a strong Howard Dean vibe to the Harris campaign. She has never won a competitive race. She was handed the senate seat by the Democratic Party machine in California because she was highly controllable. Of course, she famously flamed out in the 2020 presidential primary. She was handed the nomination this time when they pushed Biden over the edge. Her entire existence as a political figure rests on a mass media operation to conceal the reality of her support.
Of course, there is the other shenanigans. States like Michigan and Pennsylvania rely on the party machine to “get out the vote” for the Democrat. Both states have Democrat governors with eyes on the 2028 nomination. If Harris wins the election, then the political career of Gretchen Whitmer and Josh Shapiro come to an end. They will be too old and too forgotten in 2032. There are also forces in Washington who would like to be rid of Harris and her people too.
I see that with Whitmer -- she's been around forever -- but Shapiro's just really hitting the national stage, and should still have some cachet in '32. But I figured it'd be your guy stepping in post-Kamala, given the way the party's positioning him and his national profile.
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He will be term limited in 2026 and wants to run for President in 28 or 32. Sooner than later
Same with Gretchen and the dyslexic Gavin
Edit: if Trump wins then 2028 is a race with no incumbent
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