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0 sats \ 9 replies \ @stack_harder 28 Oct \ parent \ on: US Treasury sign falls off podium when Yellen asked if concerned about dollar bitcoin
oh wow, NK , Iran and Russia lol.
total dreamland. let's illustrate this dream using California.
russia's entire economy is less than that of California
iran's economy is ten times less than the economy of California
NK dystopian shithole's joke of an economy is 120 times smaller than California
nobody gives a shit what fiat they want to trade in. They don't have the global leverage to do anything. China is happy to take their money and has made Russia a vessel state, but the Yuan will not be the new dollar.
how about trade volume ?
Russia and China: China is Russia's largest trading partner, with trade between them about $190 billion in 2023
Iran is about 15 billion
NK is maybe a couple of billion
Now, let's look at the EU, they did about €856 billion in 2023
UK did about 63 billion
and US did about 537 BILLION
the boys with the biggest spending get to dictate currency terms, and they sure won't be paying in Yuan.
Russia or NK is welcome to use that trash though
Its true Russia Iran and N.Korea are not a large ratio of the total global GDP but it is also true that China has won the trade war.
China now produces the manufactured goods that form the basis of consumer and business supply chains. Big US corporates rely upon Chinese supply chains because they are more efficient and supply at a lower cost. Chinese EV manufacturers can source batteries at substantially lower cost than Tesla ca.
All economies globally are now reliant upon Chinese exports of manufactured goods and were they to lose access to Chinese supply chains they would experience significant economic disadvantage as a result.
In parallel with this China buys more raw commodities than any other nation and so it has considerable leverage and influence upon commodity markets.
In fact many if not most nations now depend on China for exports and imports because Chinas productive import/export economy in merchandise is the biggest and strongest in the world.
Just like the US was once the dominant global manufacturing nation on earth post WW2 when it gained global monetary hegemony, now China is.
A simple study of world history will show you that the dominant trading nation always also enjoys monetary hegemony for the simple reason that its currency becomes essential in accessing its markets.
USAs USD global reserve currency monetary hegemony is a legacy strategic asset that is swiftly waning as its been abused and leveraged to the max- to the tune of $35 Trillion and rising every month.
China is clearly not in any hurry to take the step of assuming global monetary sovereignty and it will probably be a gradual process as this is best for both the US and China, but the process has begun and it is the direction things are headed in.
USA and the west simply cannot compete with China on trade- nearly all nations have a trade deficit with China- these are the ingredients which make a transition away from USD to Chinese CBDC Yuan almost inevitable.
A very large part of US and European trade figures are for financial transactions/services because they still dominate those tertiary sectors, not trade in goods, but domination of financial transactions only follows from trade dominance and they have now lost trade dominance in manufactured goods. Its very difficult to see this being reversed with tariffs (which are admissions of failure to compete in a free market) or, anything else.
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I’m not a china hater btw, but I’m also not a ccp cuck either
Let’s look at some of these points
**China has “won the trade war” and is the dominant global supplier of manufactured goods.
"winning" the trade war is subjective. The trade war has also led to diversification efforts, including reshoring and China Plus One strategies, where companies diversify manufacturing to other regions like Vietnam, India, and Mexico to reduce reliance on China.
Countries and corporations aren’t dumb and are aware of the risks of over-reliance on a single source, especially after the supply chain chaos we saw during COVID.
Also, China's labor costs are rising too and companies like Apple, Samsung, and Microsoft have shifted some production to India and Southeast Asia
** China’s economy dominates global commodity markets and gives it leverage over other economies.
Yes China is a big boy, but it’s still highly dependent on imports for essential resources like oil, natural gas, and other raw materials so it is still vulnerable to supply chain disruptions and price volatility. Unlike commodities like electronics or textiles, raw materials are less monopolized and can be sourced from multiple suppliers around the world, including Australia, the U.S., and Africa etc.
** China’s manufacturing sector is now the biggest and strongest in the world, comparable to the U.S. post-WW2.
Yes they have a large manufacturing base, but it is not as innovative or technologically advanced in high-end sectors, like semiconductor manufacturing and advanced defense technology. The U.S. and other Western countries still retain technological leadership in these areas, with heavy investments in AI, aerospace, and quantum computing – all sectors that China still relies on to import components.
China’s manufacturing also doesn’t have the level of global trust that the U.S. enjoyed post-WW2 (endless intellectual property rights violations, quality control etc).
** Dominance in trade naturally leads to monetary hegemony, positioning China’s currency as a global reserve.
Trade dominance alone does not guarantee a currency’s status as a global reserve. The U.S. dollar’s dominance comes not only from endless shenanigans but also a global move away from commodity money. We broke history and fiat money hellscape is the result, and the dollar became king for many, many reasons.
While I am not a fiat currency fan and am a btc maxi, the dollar isn't going anywhere for a long time. it has king trade status, biggest liquidity, stable financial markets, a decent legal system, and is political stability.
Meanwhile, China’s financial markets are heavily controlled, and the yuan is not even freely convertible, so who wants it as a global reserve currency? Countries prefer the dollar due to its stability, (perceived) trust, and accessibility, which the yuan does not provide.
Also, most countries see the dollar as a safer and more transparent option - over 60% of global reserves are still held in U.S. dollars, while the yuan makes up less than 3%
On a human level, go ask someone in Argentina, Lebanon or even Russia if they would like dollars or yuan, and you will get back the answer of dollars 1000% of the time.
People aren’t stupid. China is a communist, authorization country and the whims of one man or the party can ruin any amount of well-laid plans.
*** The transition from the USD to a Chinese CBDC (central bank digital currency) is inevitable.
There is absolutely no way in hell most countries would want to use a Chinese-controlled CBDC because of surveillance and privacy. The digital yuan is a tool for domestic financial control rather than a global currency, and its adoption outside China is limited.
For international transactions, there are a ton of more neutral options to avoid potential surveillance risks. Russia might use it because of sanctions, but they won't need to once the sanctions end. the average Russian citizen won't be holding digital yuan for sure. they'll be getting spied on around the clock by their own digital currencies.
** Tariffs and trade protections are signs of a failure to compete with China.
Tariffs are not only about competition; they are also about addressing trade imbalances, protecting intellectual property, and reducing national security risks associated with over-dependence on a single country.
Most countries already woke up to the fact that they allowed themselves to become over dependant on cheap Chinese labour.
Now, China might still end up the biggest global player because most of the West is 100% is a form a decline, but China also has a shit ton of issues of its own and I still believe that we will never see the yuan as a global currency.
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BTW Im not a USA/the west hater or a CCP cuck either - just a realist wishing to face facts even if they are uncomfortable for me as a westerner and a Bitcoiner.
I do not believe hopium or delusional thinking helps deal with the real world and the challenges democracy and the west face- but rather they are at the core of the disease of denial that is driving the decline we can all see.
You can believe what you like but all the trends lean toward China achieving growing dominance over the increasingly dysfunctional west.
I agree its not a done deal yet, but its hard to see how the west could reverse the trends.
IMO the basis of the problem is complacency- your complacency and the more general complacency that is revealed every time I raise this topic.
There are always a chorus or at least a monologue of ' it just can't happen'- after all we have been the dominant culture for the last 500 years.
Complacency, apathy and division are at the root of the decline of the west- and they have been evident in every culture that enjoyed dominance and then lost it.
Agree China does not have the degree of innovation and very high tech advantage that the west still enjoys- but what China does have is a unified strategy and it has a government that is highly incentivised to continue its economic advance- because the CCP knows that if it does not it loses its 'mandate of the heavens' and risks removal by an uprising.
In contrast the west is asleep- corporates own nearly all of its 'elected representatives' via patronage. In the west capital directs government.
In China the government directs capital.
China has a strategy, the west has crony capitalism, illusory democracy and deeply entrenched parasitic crony capitalism.
Dollars are only the preferred currency because they are universally accepted and they are only universally accepted because of the legacy fiat monetary hegemony USA inherited from Britain and has maintained via SWIFT.
Today China has already launched its CBDC which is capable of international trade payments and internal use for payments in a more efficient faster and cheaper protocol that SWIFT.
Chinas puppet Russia has proposed a BRICS trade payment protocol which would almost certainly be based upon the already operational and perhaps most advanced CBDC in the world- Chinas E-Yuan sometimes known as DCEP.
USD is still used for most trade payments, but not because USA dominates trade- it doesn't anymore- USA has had consistent trade deficits since the 1970s and has only remained viable because of its ability to print seemingly endless liquidity via the USD.
The credibility and viability of the USD is nearing collapse.
The transition to a currency issued by the dominant productive economy economy is inevitable.
As for Chinas currency being openly traded- the USD and all other fiat currencies were strictly controlled until 1971 when gold backing was removed.
Monetary hegemony derives from trading dominance- and the USA and the west have lost that dominance...they remain in denial of the consequences but history does not.
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it's not purely complacency, i agree with most of your points in many ways.
it just doesn't make any sense for any country to want to hold a Chinese (of all places) cbdc. doesn't matter if they are top dog.
nobody with any brain, in any country, wants anything to do with a cbdc, especially not one from China
and while a cbdc is faster and more efficient than swift, there will most likely be a euro cbdc and dollar one as well that could still be used, even alongside it
not only that, China has unsustainable debt, a deflating real estate bubble, declining productivity, and a looming demographic crisis (same as many Western economies )- it is far, far from roses in China too.
in any case , even if the yuan did become the global reserve, it's still fiat, it's still shit and the digital version is just the usual dystopian cbdc nonsense
fiat is cancer
communism is double cancer
statism is cancer
bitcoin is freedom
bitcoin is uncontrobale
no to fiat, yes to bitcoin
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Fiat is a cancer- you do not understand fiat- it is a very powerful monetary lever- yes it has been abused at least since 1971 but the Chinese use it in the way it can deliver incredible economic growth- by channeling it into the building of productive assets and infrastructure- and before you raise the Evergrande/Chinese housing boom bust look at the western banks that have taken a massive hit on that.
https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/bluebay-buyer-evergrande-debt-ashmore-ubs-exposed-morningstar-2021-09-27/
Communism is a double cancer- China is now not a Communist economy- it is a mixed economy- this is why the CCP in order to justify its continued role must deliver economic results not mere empty rhetoric like most western governments that are now mere puppets of the their corporate-banker sponsors.
statism is a cancer- no, humans are frail individually and have only come to dominate the planet via forming tribal grouping and exerting their will over resources and other groups- this is most highly expressed in nation states - go try living without the support of the nation state- go on the Alone program and see how long you last in the wilderness- I'm giving you 24 hours before you are begging for a big mac, a coke and a blanket.
bitcoin is freedom- yes! Bitcoin delivers freedom to the individual but at some expense to the nation state and its fiat monopoly- imo this is healthy given the abuse of fiat by western governments.
Bitcoin is uncontrollable- like gold and E.O. 6102?- the majority of Bitcoiners (perhaps not you and I) are hodling for the hope of fiat denominated speculative gain, not the freedom to make censorship resistant p2p payments- already how few hold unKYCed sats and use them for payments- the bankers and their client governments have already slyly shifted the narrative toward Bitcoin being almost exclusively used as a speculative commodity making it increasingly easy to both 'justify' and implement a ban on private custody.
No to fiat yes to Bitcoin- yes from an individuals perspective especially one critical of the misuse of fiat power by our governments this is a fair position- but does not remove the reality that Chinas CBDC Yuan is much better placed to supplant the USD for international trade payments than Bitcoin.
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govs were going off the gold standard secretly during both world wars, fiat is a monetary lever yes, but governments have proven time and time again that they simply cannot be trused to not debase a currency.
they did it thousands of years ago by diluting the currency and, funnily enough, China was the first country to ever use paper money 1500 years ago and inevitably printed far too much and decimated society.
the whole 'benevolent super smart Chinese gov knows best' line just reads like ccp propaganda , same shit as they used to pump out during the soviet union 'the benevolent central planner know best'
i don't believe it, no government can be trusted with the power of fiat and a money printer, not America, not China.
statism is cancer because it's thinking the government must control everything and be involved in everything. i don't have an issue with the state giving old people bus passes and invalids disability, but it ends up with overreach, the forced 'new green deal' being an ongoing example, but there are many more.
if shit hits the fan, i will enjoy a macdonals and a coke yes, because they are the fruits of a free market, not the government department of fast food in charge of state sponsored food creation
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I dont believe 'the government must control everything' so if that's what you call statist I agree- but that can only ever happen if people allow it.
Did I claim governments can be trusted? They are only as good as the people and structures they are composed of.
We are all the government, but most people in the west have given up on any meaningful participation in government, perhaps because the fraud of 'democracy' has been captured by corporates and all we get is crony capitalism...but the point is we have allowed it and we are responsible for it. Nobody else.
We are all the government but Libertarians choose not to participate giving the crony capitalist western liberal democracies an easy road to do as they please.
Only Chinas has a government that knows if it does not perform and deliver for most Chinese it risks removal and overthrow...and the results peak for themselves.
Nation states are most powerful groupings of humans and as such they will decide how resources are allocated- sure go off and live on an island but you will not find it easy without the structures that the nation state provide but that you take for granted.
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i don't have a problem with nation-states i know about the history of state formation, to be clear, i am thinking of statism as
'significant governmental control over economic, social, and individual affairs with the state as a central authority in managing various aspects of society, often at the expense of individual autonomy'
i object to the significant part and i am pro-individual freedoms. i object to things like a social credit score and being punished for being a 'bad citizen' the same way i object to the UK or eu trying to ban diesel cars.