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ETFs do not own Bitcoin token but they do hold custody of them. CEXes do not own Bitcoin tokens deposited by traders but do hold custody of them and KYC the custody when/if it is transferred to a trader. ETFs and CEXes deliver institutional custody at zero cost and sometimes profit to the institutions. Institutional custody means that those institutions control which fork they would follow in the event of a hard fork- all the ETFs explicitly declare they will decide which if any fork they would accept. Don't take my word for it see how Andreas Antopoulos explains it here-
Beyond giving these institutions the power to decide which fork to follow in the event of one in the case of an Order 6102B institutionally held Bitcoin would be either allowed, or would almost certainly comply with a confiscation order.
The original Order 6102 was highly effective because so much gold was already held by banks on behalf of citizens who had been entrusted with its custody by customers. The higher the level of institutional custody the more effective any confiscation ban on private custody can be expected to be.
An E.O. 6102B may well allow institutions to hold custody and only ban private citizens to hold. This would effectively end any lawful use of Bitcoin as a P2P payments protocol. They could frame it with AML FUD and protecting the USD.
The fork scenario sounds a lot like the bcash fork. I'd imagine in such a case the price of each side would provide the necessary feedback to show that the institutional coin was inferior.
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If the institutional coin has taken the majority of the 21 million with it you might still have a problem... ETFs will hold custody of more than 50% of the Bitcoin ever issued within a decade at current rates of acquisition.
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