While hash rate did suffer a 17.4% drawdown from its all-time high previously in 2022, hash price (miner revenue per terahash) has yet to make a new low this bear market. With that in mind, we assign a strong probability of mining-related equities and the price of ASICs to continue to see downside relative to bitcoin the asset, which reflexively places additional pressure on the BTC/USD exchange rate as miners become forced sellers.
Over the long term, the squeeze of miner margins forces the least efficient operations to liquidate their assets and close down shop. The ASICs and/or bitcoin holdings will then hit the market and find their home with a new buyer and a clearing market rate. This brutally capalisitic process, with both the miners and the holders of bitcoin, hardens the network’s resilience and strengthens the holder base, priming the conditions for the next parabolic run.