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Career prospects, and especially expected lifetime salaries, can be a strong motivator or deterrent in pursuing certain college degrees.
Not all degrees guarantee higher lifetime earnings compared to entering the workforce after high school without a degree—as some degrees may end up costing more than their financial benefits.
This graphic shows the average return on investment of a degree in the U.S., based on analysis from CollegeNPV of data from the U.S. Department of Education and Bureau of Labor Statistics.
The return on investment of a degree is the expected lifetime value of the degree (net of debt) compared to entering the workforce after high school.
It's very important to understand that those aren't really the return to the degrees themselves.
Almost all of those returns are earned by the top 10% of each cohort, with returns being basically zero for the other 90% of the students.
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10% of the graduates from each college or the bulk share of the graduates from the top 10% of colleges (or even limited to the Ivy Leagues)?
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IIRC, it was the top 10% of students in each class in the small set of majors that have significant returns (engineering, chemistry, etc.).
I don't remember what the sample was, but it definitely wasn't all students in America, so I don't think he could say how top schools compare to average ones. I would expect the basic pattern to hold, though, with the top few students reaping in the bulk of returns.
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It’s a relief to know that hardworking students from lesser known colleges could avail themselves of the lion’s share of the pie if they focus their minds on excellence and outperforming their peers!
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The hardest part of doing this kind of research is estimating what those students would have earned without the degrees, because smart hardworking people tend to earn a lot regardless.
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Interesting. Could you elaborate?
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This is based on work that a visiting researcher presented at my university. I don't remember his name, but I could probably look it up.
He had data on individual student performance and their later earnings, which let him see the distribution of earnings within a class/major.
What he found was that only the top few students in each class had statistically significant returns from college and only in STEM fields.
For most of us this will probably ring fairly true, since we can think of who those top few students were in our own classes. They were probably super smart and hardworking, which makes it unsurprising that they went on to earn a ton of money. The rest of us more or less break even on college.
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The important part for people to understand isn't that the top 10% make more than average, that's obvious, the point is that the return is insignificant for everyone else.
Unless you're a top student going into those particular fields, you shouldn't be thinking of college as a financial opportunity. People should go to college because they're passionate about studying something or want to have a career that requires a particular degree.
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Top 10% feels a little steep, no? I suspect more than the top 10% of my engineering class is earning good money working in the field
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These are returns to those degrees, though. That means you have to attempt to account for how much your engineering peers would have earned otherwise. Since they are fairly smart people that probably would have been a decent amount.
It would be a methodological mistake to attribute all future earnings to the degree.
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That’s true. The degrees often get you started, but beyond that, most of the success is based on your work in the field (hopefully)
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And, let's say you're earning $100k right out of college, you have to account for what you would have earned and been earning after 4 or 5 in the workforce. That might easily be $60k or more for those particular people.
So, there would be something like $200k of foregone earnings compared to something like $50k of student debt + interest. When you're earning an extra $40k it takes most of the next decade to break even.
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The way I read this is "how much money will you have when you retire?". It seems a little conservative for Engineering though.
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