121 sats \ 1 reply \ @mega_dreamer 2h \ parent \ on: Bet on the US election with sats on bitcoinprediction.market bitcoin
Agreed, managing b is the most difficult task. We are learning the hard way after seeing so much liquidity being wasted in thinly traded markets(over liquidated).
We came to a conclusion that having a foresight is very difficult for novel markets, and its easier to build a reactive liquidity management system based on market volume and frequency to maintain a good enough calibration.
BTW we've also dabbled with parimutuel and it still exists on our sports betting app(triible). But, for some reason people seem to be more gravitated towards fixed odds on Triible, not sure why, but my reasoning is that maybe people prefer predictable outcome as opposed to a chance of a windfall gain which is only possible in parimutuel. But again, that's my observation on Sports Betting. Prediction Markets are different beast altogether and the same may not hold true.
Looking forward to connecting with one of these days :)
This article gave me some inspiration with regards to LMSR and the cost of running the market.
Triible looks cool, censorship resistant betting could be a massive driver of Bitcoin adoption globally. I first bought Bitcoin in 2017 to gamble it away on Pokerstars (Fiat to Coinbase to Bitcoin to Zelle to Pokerstars). Seems like the product-market fit was already there, it's just about the UX and building out a network effect. I even played csgo poker, where I could deposit my csgo skins and gamble at super micro stakes (like 0.1c/0.2c). Bitcoin Lightning could be a perfect medium of exchange to enable that, but it's less about building product and more about getting it to market, and getting traction from paying customers.
Most definitely would love to chat, I'll be at Tabconf and Adopting Bitcoin later this year. You planning on going to any conferences?
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