0 sats \ 2 replies \ @HYPERBITCOINZATION OP 5h \ parent \ on: Bet on the US election with sats on bitcoinprediction.market bitcoin
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We show the bets placed, but the fees are deducted when we send the payouts (1% fee at the moment). The total odds add up to 108% because it is basically
Odds_total = Odds_Trump + Odds_Kamala = Y_T/(Y_T+N_T) + Y_K/(Y_K + N_K).
Both markets are independent (betting on Trump does not change Kamala's odds, it only changes Trump's odds), so they are not necessarily supposed to add up to 100%. For a clever user like yourself there's an arbitrage opportunity there to balance the odds. Few people have spotted that so far.
from ChatGPT:
How Arbitrage Works:
For arbitrage to exist in a betting market, the combined implied probabilities of all outcomes must be less than 100%, allowing you to bet on both outcomes and lock in a profit regardless of who wins.
For example, if Trump were at 60% and Kamala were at 35%, you would have a combined 95% probability (less than 100%), and you could profit by betting on both sides. However, in your case, the total is over 100%, so no arbitrage is present.
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