Kings of the North
The NFC North is undisputedly the best division in the NFL and I don't think it is particularly close. Only one team will eventually be anointed king of the North, but multiple teams and possibly even all of them could make the playoffs. Although it seems unlikely that four teams from one division could make the playoffs, especially considering teams have 6 divisional games a year and someone is going to lose those games, but the rest of the NFC seems fairly weak, so it is not out of the realm of possibility.
I think you could make a very solid case for all four teams as to why they should be playoff teams but that doesn't mean they will be. We are still only a third of the way into the season and a lot can happen between now and when the playoff seedings are set. Take the Aidan Hutchinson season ending injury as an example. Not that there is any good fortune in your best defensive player and defensive player of the year candidate snapping his tibia, but from the Lions perspective at least it happened before the trade deadline where they can try to bring in a quality replacement.
That was a long winded prelude to what I actually wanted to do with this post. What I was hoping to accomplish was to lay out the reasons why each of these four teams could be King of the North but also why they could potentially end up missing the playoffs.
Chicago Bears Record: 4-2 overall, 0-0 in the division, 2-0 in the conference
Why they could win the division: Caleb Williams seems to be improving with every game. That is bad news for the rest of the NFL. He has some really nice weapons to work with in Keenan Allen, DJ Moore, Rome Odunze and D'Andre Swift. Their defense has played better than expected and they are playing with house money. Everyone thought they would be better but not a division contender yet. They are exceeding all expectations thus far.
Why they could miss the playoffs: They have played the easy part of their schedule. They might have the most difficult remaining schedule of any team in the division. They have yet to play a divisional game, so that's at least 6 tough games coming their way and they also have the 49ers, Seahawks and Commanders on the schedule. Also, as talented as Williams is, he is a rookie he is going to have blips along the way.
My best guess: I think they have a good season overall and the future looks bright but the tough schedule gets the best of them. I predict they finish 9-8 and miss the playoffs.
Green Bay Packers Record: 4-2 overall, 0-1 in the division, 2-2 in the conference
Why they could win the division: Jordan Love is handing out TD passes like they are candy at Halloween. The offense is humming. The rag tag group of no pro bowlers who just find a way to get the job done is back. Love started slow last year and was the best QB in the NFL in the second half of the season. The offense is already humming. If he goes on a second half heater like last season, they will be tough to beat.
Why they could miss the playoffs: While the offense if flirting with top 5 in the league. The D has been in the bottom half of the league. While the secondary has been good leading the league in interceptions, the run defense has been poor and pass rush is only averaging 1.25 sacks a game. Love missed a couple games with a knee injury. He looked great this past weekend against the Cards but if the knee issue flares up and he has to miss time (especially pivotal division games) it could be trouble for the Pack. Their remaining schedule is fairly difficult with 5 divisional games remaining plus the Texans, 49ers and Seahawks.
My best guess: Love and the offense keep humming. Division games will be a grind and they will drop at least a couple of them but ultimately they do enough. I predict they finish 11-6 and make the playoffs.
Detroit Lions Record: 4-1 overall, 0-0 in the division, 4-1 in the conference
Why they could win the division: With all due respect to my 49ers, this team right now probably has the best offensive weapons in the league. Dual threat at running back with Montgomery as the power back and Gibbs as the all purpose back who is also a good pass catcher. St Brown, Williams, La Porta always seem open and Goff if an incredibly efficient passer who can also throw the deep ball. Their OLine is top notch and gives Goff tons of time to throw and the backs huge holes to run through. Ben Johnson their OC is one of the most creative play callers in the league and constantly has defenses looking confused. They are averaging over 30 points per game.
Why they could miss the playoffs: Injuries would be the primary reason a Lions season gets derailed in my opinion. They have already lost Hutchinson for the season and overall have been one of the healthiest teams in the league the past couple years. Sometimes that is just a matter of good fortune and when injuries come they come in waves. They had a very early bye this year, week 5, which could wear guys down late in the season when they have some pivotal games that will determine the division and conference seedings. Their D has played well this season but their secondary is still suspect. They have gotten away with it due to a great pass rush but without Hutchinson what does that look like.
My best guess: Lions are one of the best teams in the league and a legit Super Bowl contender. I expect a couple blips along the way and I don't trust that secondary in the playoffs but I think it is perfectly fine for the regular season. I predict they finish 12-5 and make the playoffs.
Minnesota Vikings Record: 5-0 overall, 1-0 in the division, 3-0 in the conference
Why they could win the division: They are 5-0 and likely have the coach of the year in Kevin O'Connell and the coordinator of the year in Brian Flores. Justin Jefferson is the best WR in football, They some nice complementary weapons. A very good OLine and thus far Darnold is playing well. Their D has been incredible. Flores' scheme is unpredictable. One play he will rush 8 and the next play he will show blitz but drop 8 in coverage. They start fast and turn their opponents into one dimensional passing teams, allowing their aggressive D to attack. Their remaining schedule, aside from the divisional games is laughable.
Why they could miss the playoffs: Sam Darnold turns back into a pumpkin or Justin Jefferson misses significant time. They finally started to show a bit of weakness the past couple games letting the Packers and Jets back into the game but held on to win. I think we see some regression from both the offense and defense and they probably hit a rough patch of a few games at some point.
My best guess: The Vikings and Darnold come back down to earth a bit and prove they aren't the best team in the NFL but we discover they are better than we thought they were. Their easy remaining schedule helps them hang on as the cracks begin to show in the second half. I predict they finish 12-5 and make the playoffs.
My projected final NFC North Standings: Lions 12-5 (win division and overall 1 seed in NFC by tiebreaker) Vikings 12-5 (win the first WC and go on the road to play whoever wins the NFC South) Packers 11-6 (win the second WC and go on the road to play the Eagles) Bears 9-8 (miss the playoffs but the future is very bright)
TLDR- The NFC North is really friggin good.
Sats for all, GR
I haven't watched as much NFC North as I should have, but I broadly agree with your assessment.
I still don't totally believe in the Vikings, but they've run up enough wins that they'd have to have some major setbacks to miss the playoffs. I'll go ahead and predict them to lose their Wild Card matchup.
The Bears defense has looked really good to me. I wish the Raiders would watch their tape and start hitting the other team hard enough to put them in the turf. I think they'll be volatile for the rest of the way as Caleb encounters various rookie speedbumps. I think they'll miss the playoffs mostly because their divisional rivals will beat up on them.
I'm a believer in the Lions and Packers, without reservation. Only injuries can derail them (unfortunately, they already have plenty of those).
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I think we are in agreement. I am not totally sold on the Vikings either but take a look at this remaining schedule:
Lions Rams Colts Jags Titans Bears Cardinals Falcons Bears Seahawks Packers Lions
I don't see them losing all 5 remaining division games. But even if they lost 4, where are many other losses coming from?
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Sometimes you see losses snowball. Those are a lot of teams that aren't much worse than I think the Vikings are.
Let's say they lose 4 division games and Seattle beats them.
Could they lose 4/6 to those other teams? It does seem unlikely, especially with the Jags being in there.
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I guess we will see. I could seem them having a losing streak in that Falcons-Lions game that end the season.
But I go through the list and say could the Colts, Cardinals, Falcons, Seahawks all beat them. Sure but are they going to lose to all of them? Probably not.
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37 sats \ 1 reply \ @grayruby OP 4h
Should we rank the divisions on the podcast this week? That might be a fun segment.
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Sure
We each bring our list and then compare them?
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Vikings take the north.
Obviously. 1-1 with the lions 2-0 against the packers 2-0 against the bears.
Overall record 13-4 and looking for more.
Let's go baaaarrroooooo!
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I don't think you are going to go 5-1 in the division.
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10ksats? Vikings 5-1 or better in NFC North.
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Ok. Sounds fun. @Undisciplined might want in on that action. He thinks the Vikings are going to go 2-4. I am more hopeful. I think 3-3 at least.
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Hold on, I didn't say 2-4 was the most likely. I'd have 3-3 as the most likely outcome.
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Ok well Pub is offering up free sats here. So I suggest you get in on this action before he changes his mind after the Lions beat the Vikings on Sunday. I am rooting for the Vikings though.
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I'm fine taking this action. Are we splitting the 10k?
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Up to Pub. If he wants to do another 10k with you or if he just wants the one bet.
I'd say 5-1 is the best gwess undoubtedly.
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50 sats \ 6 replies \ @Carresan 4h
Much appreciated this post. It helps someone like me ahead of next few weeks in survivor pool. Thanks!
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Thanks but considering my early exit from the Survivor Pool you might not want to base you picks on my ramblings.
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50 sats \ 4 replies \ @Carresan 4h
Every little piece of information helps a lot. Right now trying to get as much information as I can. I knew nothing just 8 weeks ago.
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Fancy dipping your toe into the fantasy league next year? I used to know nothing about NFL until I started playing fantasy.
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90 sats \ 0 replies \ @Carresan 3h
Hahaha! I will definitely consider it though that it is a difficult step. I hardly know a few players. Mainly some QB .
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30 sats \ 1 reply \ @grayruby OP 3h
A couple more teams next year would be great.
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40 sats \ 0 replies \ @Carresan 3h
I will try just for the fun. I may end up hooked on the NFL!
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