When given partial info, most people felt confident they knew all they needed to.
The world is full of people who have excessive confidence in their own abilities. This is famously described as the Dunning-Kruger effect, which describes how people who lack expertise in something will necessarily lack the knowledge needed to recognize their own limits. Now, a different set of researchers has come out with what might be viewed as a corollary to Dunning-Kruger: People have a strong tendency to believe that they always have enough data to make an informed decision—regardless of what information they actually have.
The work, done by Hunter Gehlbach, Carly Robinson, and Angus Fletcher, is based on an experiment in which they intentionally gave people only partial, biased information, finding that people never seemed to consider they might only have a partial picture. "Because people assume they have adequate information, they enter judgment and decision-making processes with less humility and more confidence than they might if they were worrying whether they knew the whole story or not," they write. The good news? When given the full picture, most people are willing to change their opinions.
This has always been a problem, but nowadays it is completely out of control. For example, you watch podcasts and see people who seem to have a basis on a topic, citing sources, the names of thinkers, but in reality they are intellectual fraudsters. When they are talking about a topic that I follow more closely, I realize at first that he is a charlatan, because as the interlocutor is unaware of the topic, the level of mediocrity goes unnoticed.
reply
The man who waits for all the information finds out what it like to hit the mountain while flying int the clouds.
reply
But that shouldn't obscure the fact that there's a strong cognitive bias at play here. "Because people assume they have adequate information, they enter judgment and decision-making processes with less humility and more confidence than they might if they were worrying whether they knew the whole story or not," Gehlbach, Robinson, and Fletcher.
The world is full of people who think they know everything to make their decisions. The thing is, is that you can never have all the information that is out there to make your decision, you can only have a piece of it. People have to get used to and practice making decisions on partial information.
reply