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10 sats \ 4 replies \ @Jon_Hodl 13 Oct \ on: Bet on the US election with sats on bitcoinprediction.market bitcoin
Looks very cool.
I have been looking for an alternative to the centralized BetMoose
Who decides the outcomes of the bets and how?
We currently decide the outcomes of the bets. so the oracle is the Bitcoin Prediction Market team. We're looking to decentralize this by using ecash mints to enable anyone to run their own prediction market, ask questions, and provide liquidity.
The issue with a fully decentralized p2p prediction market is then you can't use something like LMSR (or at least I currently don't know how you'd architect that kind of solution). The point of the prediction market is to centralize liquidity around a market maker, which can use those bets to forecast the future. If all the bets are p2p, then you can't gather that intelligence, which is a major drawback.
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The market-maker should ideally be a smart contract. The two Bitcoin sidechains to implement that are https://rootstock.io and https://blog.blockstream.com/simplicity-arrives-on-liquid-testnet/
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When we get the traction and capital, we'd love to build on either of them. Just gotta get that traction and raise another round of funding first.
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