I've been thinking about the opportunity cost of all the shit I've done in my life since bitcoin came onto the market. It's been an interesting thought experiment and here's why I think so.

For one, financial advisors always want to tell you that past performance is never indicative of future performance. This might be true with the markets. There's really no telling when the federal reserve is going to start up its money printer again and increase global money supply, lower interest rates to help unemployment and stimulate economic growth, or what have you other shenanigans Mr. Powell is getting himself into on behalf of the hardworking everyman and woman. We know how that story ends. As bitcoiners, we also know, that although history doesn't repeat itself, it certainly does rhyme. What some like to call 'number-go-up' technology, others see as 'fiat-go-down' and Bitcoin stay same. One BTC will always be worth 1 BTC.

Secondly, financial freedom tastes like this: with bitcoin, one can save their money and never have to earn it ever again. Think about that. The problem with fiat currency is that it is like playing a losing hand. Inflation devalues people's salaries and their savings, and steals the fruits of their productivity. Having equity in a home or another asset like a boat, means one becomes richer only on paper, but to hire a plumber or to rent a slip, still requires payment in an inflated fiat currency. So what most people do, is they pay someone to manage their finances, but what they are really doing is paying for someone more qualified than them to risk their hard earned dollars on the markets. Bitcoin does not lose its value because its supply is fixed at 21 million. There can and will never be more than that.

There are so many things worth living for, least of all to spend your scarce time thinking about how to earn your money twice--first, by the sweat of your brow, and then by risking what you have earned in the financial markets. I think this is the reason why most people are unhappy. What happens when folks transition from childhood into adulthood, where does the zest and zeal go, and how come adults in our society are so heavily burdened by stress, poor mental and physical health? Why don't adults frolic and squeal for joy like the children in the schoolyard?

The fact is, we start to bear much more responsibility as our conscious grows, spreads its wings and fixes its gaze on the future. This means, necessarily, we become providers for our future selves. What a wonderful and glorious thing it is, to provide for anyone. Parents know this. And those who are single without children: how wonderful it is to work and know you are saving, in some way, for that next rainy day, a home or that vacation you so deserve? Fiat currency takes that from us. Bitcoin gives it back.

Ok, so if I haven't already made my point clear, then I will appeal to the help of math and numbers. Below, I show the opportunity cost for having bought some everyday indulgences and not bitcoin. It really is quite interesting. I have the model now, so if you are curious about anything else, then write to me in the comments and hopefully I'll be able to find the price and plug it in.

Some points of clarification. I do not have an economics degree, nor am I qualified to make economic analyses of this sort. But I think the method here is rather simple. I found historic price data for a few things online and put them in bitcoin terms according to the price of bitcoin at that point in history. Technically, the opportunity cost would be the bitcoin stacked less the actual cost paid for that item, but I think the main emphasis here is the amount of bitcoin that could have been stacked if these things had been foregone to buy bitcoin.

As a final note of explanation: Coinmarketcap.com provides Bitcoin price data only back to April 2013 so I have let that serve as the starting point for my data set. All dollar values are nominal USD (not adjusted to inflation) and do not include taxes. Lastly, the dollar denominated values for BTC are as of 9/30/2024 ($63329.5).

I'll leave you with this and hope that you remember my first point in this post, which is that while history doesn't repeat itself, it certainly does rhyme.

Stack sats and stay humble.

Blessings,

FR

Iphone upgrades once per year since 2013 / -Nominally costs 329,321.15) in the same period -with a potential ROI of 295170%

Netflix subscription monthly payments since 2013 / -Nominally costs 91,640.68) in the same period -with a potential ROI of 553346%

Starbucks coffee 1 x 5 days/week, if saved and invested in bitcoin at the close of every month, since 2013 / -Nominally costs you 69/month) -Would have stacked you 11.12217667 BTC in the same period -With a potential ROI of 739721%

And just for fun, 1000 sats goes to whoever can guess the stack and ROI for the following item. Contest ends in 48 hours.

Base trim Lincoln Navigator 2012 Purchased in April 2013, with 1012/year starting in the third year. / Nominally costs $72,240.80 (MSRP + interest/tax + maintenance) would have stacked you Y BTC in the same period With a potential ROI of Z%