Executive Summary

When comparing Bitcoin’s cyclical price performance since the bear market was low, an uncanny similarity emerges over the prior three cycles, with the index trading at a nearly identical position.

There has been a rise in the number of Long-term Holder coins held in loss, as large volumes of BTC acquired near the $73k ATH mature across the 155-day threshold.

However, the magnitude of unrealized loss held by these investors remains small in scale, suggesting minimal financial pressure imposed on their portfolios.

A clear improvement in Short-Term Holder profitability can be observed throughout the recent rally, providing relief for buyers who recently acquired their coins.

The conviction of US ETF investors remains relatively robust, with only minor sell-side pressure taking place, despite being underwater on average inflow cost basis positions.