A deep dive into U.S. consumer data is showing concerning trends. Retail sales (ex. auto and gas) have flatlined, while the NRA's Restaurant Performance Index has nosedived, dropping below pre-pandemic levels. Historically, both metrics have been critical in gauging economic health, but the current decline hints at deeper systemic issues.
Compounding the challenge is a softening labor market, with growing layoffs and stagnant hiring contributing to lower consumer confidence. As inflation compounds and wages fail to keep up, consumers are pulling back on both retail purchases and dining out, intensifying the slowdown.
If spending doesn't rebound soon, the combination of a weakening labor market and slowing retail could trigger a broader economic downturn.