Hi.

Ran some numbers to update plots I have in one presentation I gave a year ago. I combined some Metcalfe-based indicators over Bitcoin's active addresses with Lightning nodes count.

Here is a general plot with price and node count

Here is the plot in question. Major conclusion: The old model with old Metcalfe coefficients shows similar numbers or even larger discrepancies with market cap dynamics while the LN node count nicely adds to the top. Somehow, Lightning is important, meanwhile, it has a relatively small capacity.

More on the topic: https://medium.com/coinmonks/value-of-layer-2-f00dc8e6fbfb