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What do you think "A"-level success for LN looks like in five years, and what do you think are the UX or behavioral barriers that exist to getting there?
There remain major issues with UX, security, privacy, and scaling. I think most UX, security, and privacy issues have known solutions, many of which are actively being worked on. Given some of these changes require modifications to the spec itself, then the LN implementations, and then the wallets, this is a multi-year development roadmap. However, in a 5 year timeframe, I expect LN-enabled bitcoin wallets to offer an excellent UX with good security and privacy. My biggest concern at this point is that it "only" scales a few orders of magnitude over on-chain bitcoin, and if we want to offer the benefits of bitcoin to the entire planet, and possibly machine-to-machine as well, we'll need to innovate our way to that. Or, worst case, LN will just complement other systems that have different tradeoffs, such as Fedimint.
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