204 sats \ 3 replies \ @grayruby 19 Sep \ parent \ on: Stacker Saloon
This is based on a persistent annual growth rate. It is plausible that sometime during this time period we have a tipping point or black swan event and Bitcoin skyrockets to many millions over the course of a couple years and then slowly grinds up. Depending on when this happens in the 21 year period you could end up with a lot more than this (if it is in the last few years) or a lot less than this (if it is in the first few years).
So I would caution against stating if you save $20-$50 a week over the next 21 years you will end up between 1.2M and 9M. However, this is a good reminder that daily or weekly dca and letting compounding do its work will get you where you want to be in the long term.
Listened to Saylor on Saif's podcast and he talked about this. It sounds like his assumptions are not based on the dollar collapsing or anything drastic really. Econ keeps moving, dollar is still the dominate money in the world. Basically bitcoin as an asset sucking up gold's market share and some of many other things. That's a pretty conservative view IMO. I suspect we will see a massive event in the next 20 years which could make bitcoin in relation to the dollar skyrocket. That said, I like Saylor's look at it because if you are using the dollar as you unit of account and you assume it is just going to keep inflating these numbers aren't crazy.
Now if we have a black swan bitcoin in relation to dollars could be even more massive but its purchasing power might be closer to Saylor's numbers. Its all just speculation though.
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All speculation indeed. I do think they can kick the fiat can down the road longer than most bitcoiners believe possible but I am in your camp I find it hard to believe we don't have some kind of black swan for the fiat system over the next 20 years. Will that be its demise, who knows, but something is going to happen to have it at least in extreme peril.
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Or a zero day bug in the core code
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