The US unemployment rate has risen substantially this year so far. At the start of the year, the unemployment rate was 3.7%. By July, it had jumped to 4.3%, the highest unemployment rate the nation has seen since fall 2021. Last month, it edged down slightly to 4.2%, but Federal Reserve officials don’t think will drop any more.

Instead, they see the unemployment rate hitting 4.4% by the end of this year, according to median forecasts included in the Summary of Economic Projections.