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I haven't scratched very deep into the design, but this explanation for why consensus change probability decreases over time is pretty excellent:
The Bitcoin blockchain has ossified in practice. Due to the scheduled halvening every 4 years causing a sudden increase in Bitcoin price, leading to a sudden increase in interest in Bitcoin, large batches of new users join the set of entities with an interest in Bitcoin consensus. As the previous batch becomes convinced of some consensus change, the new batch enters Bitcoin, which must itself be convinced of the same consensus change. If a consensus change cannot achieve practical consensus within a time shorter than a halvening period, it will not ever happen, thus leading to ossification in practice (smaller and more easily-digestible changes may still push
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