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160 sats \ 5 replies \ @oliverweiss 6 Sep \ on: Marriage rates may have already peaked for millennials charts_and_numbers
Oh my goodness… this is pretty scary.
Not sure this is the main reason. In the past people were mostly poor but had plenty of kids.
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In fact, poor breeding nations have low literacy rates and live below the poverty line.
In Western countries, people are now struggling to make ends meet and often with two salaries in the family. I find it normal that before bringing a child into the world, a couple wonders whether they can support it.
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India, egypt, libya, latin america are poor, yet their birth rate is going down. Africa would probably start to shrink later too in the same way as Europe after 19th century. Children per fertile woman is going down, but antibiotics and vaccines saves most children so their population is rising for now.
Also if this trend continues we won't probably see china in a half century as a state anymore. They overcount people a little for like 200 million that also mostly were "born" in 80s (need verification), which also shrinks the working people. With 1.0 children per woman, in a century 1.3 Billion is halved towards 0.6 billion. With overcount it would reach this level much faster, and before reaching China would collapse through pension burden. They could refuse to pay pension, but spending would fall, so the GDP.
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It's a complex subject. It's true that birth rates are falling in the countries you listed, but it will take several years before they reach the levels of Western countries. Who knows if a solution will be found. Each country certainly faces different challenges.
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