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Day One of Jobs Report: August private payrolls rose by 99k, far below estimateswww.cnbc.com/2024/09/05/august-private-payrolls-rose-by-99000-smallest-gain-since-2021-and-far-below-estimates-adp-says.html
1390 sats \ 7 comments \ @Cje95 5 Sep econ
Today was the first day of the two-day jobs numbers which are going to drive what the Fed announces this month. This 99k increase was the smallest since 2021 but what was interesting was when listening to the CNBC hosts this morning was how in normal times 99k would be a normal number but since the pandemic we are used to seeing such larger numbers it skews out view.
Tomorrows data release will paint a clearer picture but so far this data while much lower than expected isn't to terrible.
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0 sats \ 0 replies \ @grayruby 5 Sep
Odd reaction from the market.
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0 sats \ 5 replies \ @siggy47 5 Sep
It will probably be interpreted as terrible enough to cut interest rates, though. I like the positive spin in saying
only a few sectors reported actual job losses. Professional and business services declined 16,000, manufacturing lost 8,000 and information services declined by 4,000.
I think my view is warped. I see everything through electoral politics now. Harris can't run on Bidenomics anymore, but a big interest rate cut will juice those 401ks.
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64 sats \ 4 replies \ @Cje95 OP 5 Sep
If this wasnt an election year I think it would be much easier to cut rates and cut them bigger and quicker. Being an election year and with the election so close now it is a wild card given what Powell has said about not wanting to influence the elections. Given how disconnected the stock market has been with what people are actually paying and dealing with finances I feel like a correction has to be coming.
If the correction happens before the election Republicans will love it and could leverage it to sweep the elections if it doesn't then I think we end up with some sort of divided Congress/Presidency again.
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21 sats \ 3 replies \ @siggy47 5 Sep
Do you see a September rate cut? If so, do you think the correction is inevitable regardless?
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64 sats \ 2 replies \ @Cje95 OP 5 Sep
Yeah I feel the correction is going to come no matter what. The economic data hasn't been terrible but it hasn't been great either. China continues to struggle to rebound, something that I think surprised everyone, and the US isn't going to keep pumping money out like they are (IRA,IIJA) and Congress is looking at passing a CR for the rest of the year meaning the budget is going to be flat.
I think Powell will have to make a cut and it will be announced this month but its going to be small at 25 basis points. Something he can point out at and say hey look at what I did but also wont really effect anything. 50 would cause some market chaos and spook investors
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21 sats \ 1 reply \ @siggy47 5 Sep
I hope your take is accurate. I'm seeing the start of a stock market crash that requires a substantial cut, framed as an emergency so it doesn't look partisan. I guess we'll wait and see. I can't believe we'll go into November with a correcting stock market.
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64 sats \ 0 replies \ @Cje95 OP 5 Sep
I am trying to recall if there are any big economic announcements coming the next couple of weeks beyond the jobs numbers tomorrow and I don't think so. Oil prices I think could be a big sign esp if we see a collapse of them due to a demand shortage via China. If that hits the market could spiral and spiral real quick
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