21 sats \ 16 replies \ @didiplaywell 31 Aug \ parent \ on: Kamala's Housing Plan Will Make Housing Even More Expensive econ
Hilary was old, it doesn't count, it was like having biden in front of him. That points to the other positive on Kamala's side: she's much younger. A young, "black/latina" woman. Game over.
You're moving the goal posts. That kind of demographic analysis comes up every election cycle and it almost never pans out. She's intensely unlikable, which will keep many women and minorities from supporting her.
Here are my predictions:
- Fewer than half of women who are eligible to vote will vote for Kamala
- She'll do worse with black voters than Biden did
reply
I want to believe you. I'm highly pessimistic on this one.
reply
I have the same gut feeling that I had in 2016. Someone that uncharismatic can't win a national election. Now, they might just cheat. That wouldn't surprise me.
reply
You can rig hundreds or thousands of votes. But that's only useful if the elections are way too balanced, as when Biden won. Like, ok, Trump might have been the one to win that state by +200 instead of losing by -500, but... in a state of 10.000.000 voters? ...such a lame difference? When the difference is so small it's meaningless, and by all means the right decision is power alternance in such scenario.
So what you have to look at is not if they "have" to cheat but if they can cheat. If they can barely tick the compass so to make it change direction, then the compass is broken. It's key to address that because after Biden won, Trump voters remained convinced that everything happened solely due to cheating and no auto-correction was ever made. Now, no correction has been made, and for many choosing Trump has become solely a way to not to chose Kamala. That's not how you get things straight. The core problem must be addressed.
reply
You're right and they seem to realize the need to run up the margins in the would be swing states.
I actually think the potential scale of electronic vote switching is large enough to determine outcomes, without being overly suspicious. Not to mention, as we're seeing in Venezuela, if the regime declares an outcome and insists upon it, there's no easy remedy.
reply
Electronic voting adds a unneeded layer of obscurity, that's for sure. But the problem in USA is still the compass. You might gain some air short-term by trying to build up immediate electoral margins but that's not a plan a Nation can rely on long-term. It's a "lets make trump less of a bad decision for some by showing how worse of a decision kamala is". That phrase right there is the whole problem.
And that was our problem. Our "Trump", Macri, lost to that. In our case his defeat was disheartening to the point of trauma, and that helped the build up of an alternative when Milei started pointing out, for the first time ever, that our "Trump" was just as bad of an alternative. With nicer manners, a more conservative profile, for sure, but as bad nonetheless, and that was the reason for his defeat. Embracing defeat was what allowed that maturing process that made Milei possible. The moment Trump voters go "ok, we lost because we deserved it, what's the background problem here we must address", that's the moment you will achieve the impossible. But no, you have "Project 2025" which is a cult-like movement that states that Trump did nothing wrong and the solution is no other correction than getting "more pure" people around him so that his perfection do not gets stained.
reply
There's a lot of interesting insights in there, I'm not sure Americans are ready to learn any lessons. We're not nearly as far gone as Argentina was.
Project 2025 is a red herring. Only Trump's opponents ever talk about it and Trump obviously hasn't read it. It may be cult-like, but I don't think it's very representative.
reply
The USA at this point can't touch bottom as Argentina did. But total-war-level time and resources are about to be wasted down into communist delirium for 8 years at least. Such a shame.
Project 2025 was written by the heritage foundation, a conservative think tank. It’s not a campaign manifesto
reply
I know but it's still representative of Trump's voters mindset. And that's the mindset I see on X for example.
In Michigan the number of citizens age 18 years and over is 77 percent. However the voter registration rate is 83 percent. Obviously the 83 percent is wrong, a blatant over count.
reply
Her problem is likability especially outside of California.
reply