You're exactly right about the tradeoffs. The pooled system more easily allows for the interface you prefer, but at the cost of floating odds.
Either system should converge to the true probability, although the pooled system may do so later, because of the disincentive to early bidding.
26 sats \ 2 replies \ @ek OP 24 Aug
Cool, I can have a conversation with a real economist about real economy stuff and I actually understand what we're talking about. Does that mean I am something of an economist myself?
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I could see the meme before you added it.
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That's not really where we set the bar, but you probably do have a better grasp than many who hold the title.
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