194 sats \ 6 replies \ @SimpleStacker 20 Aug \ on: Hilarious video to watch when you still take mainstream economists serious... econ
I think Peter Schiff's criticisms are pretty unfair.
It would be like criticizing Albert Einstein for not having a well thought out answer regarding science policy. (Not that I think these guys are anywhere on the level of Einstein.)
But the point is that they're experts in a fairly narrow area, and they were rewarded for making a significant contribution to that area. It doesn't make them an expert in all matters of economic policy.
In fact, I appreciate the humility shown by Chris Sims here. It's better than Krugman who uses his clout to opine on matters of which he has no knowledge.
That's true. Some branches of economics are completely removed from macro stuff. I'd be curious what their prize is in, because if it's some macro sub-specialty, Peter is right to ridicule them. They should be able to draw some vague general insight from their specialty that might help them form an asterisked opinion at the least.
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Well, Sims is a macroeconomist, so.... heh
I guess I'm coming from a place of personal experience. I'm an economist whose work deals with housing, but I get kinda annoyed when people ask me where the real estate market is headed. I can give you some general principles, but I don't spend most of my time looking at real time data to make forecasts, so I'm really not the right person to ask.
Still, you're right in the sense that I'll usually respond with some generic insights that touch on current events, or counts for financial advice. For example, if someone asks me if they should wait for the Fed rate cut to buy a house, I might tell them it depends on whether they're more constrained by their downpayment or by their income.
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I purchased a rental property in 2022 as a 1031 exchange. I already have buyer’s remorse. Not because it’s a bad property. I realize that I don’t want to be a landlord even a silent partner. My loan has an early payment penalty that expires next year. Otherwise I would put it on the market today.
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lack of on-the-spot regressions aside, I got something different out of the clip: Keynesians can't answer general questions on the spot because Keynesianism is a ass-backwards kluge "science" created in order to justify money printing.
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Macro economics is dangerous because much of it is speculation and assumption. I don’t mean financial speculation but academic or theoretical speculation
Edit:
Krugman won a Nobel prize for his contribution to international trade
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"Their work focused on the development of methods for understanding how economic policies and shocks affect the economy over time, particularly through the use of econometric models."
I am sorry, there's no excuse for this clown show of a press conference. The questions were spot on. You can't develop a model without understanding the subject. Or they could have just talked about what their models say, I hope they actually used them.
Or don't give a press conference.
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